English
Related papers

Related papers: On Probability Estimation by Exponential Smoothing

200 papers

We study the problem of estimating a distribution over a finite alphabet from an i.i.d. sample, with accuracy measured in relative entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence). While optimal bounds on the expected risk are known, high-probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Jaouad Mourtada

In this paper, we consider binary response models with linear quantile restrictions. Considerably generalizing previous research on this topic, our analysis focuses on an infinite collection of quantile estimators. We derive a uniform…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-25 Stanislav Volgushev

We present a method for the approximate propagation of mean and covariance of a probability distribution through ordinary differential equations (ODE) with discontinous right-hand side. For piecewise affine systems, a normalization of the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-03-06 Florian Messerer , Katrin Baumgärtner , Armin Nurkanović , Moritz Diehl

With the ubiquitous availability of unstructured data, growing attention is paid as how to adjust for selection bias in such non-probability samples. The majority of the robust estimators proposed by prior literature are either fully or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-08 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Smoothing splines provide a powerful and flexible means for nonparametric estimation and inference. With a cubic time complexity, fitting smoothing spline models to large data is computationally prohibitive. In this paper, we use the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-09 Danqing Xu , Yuedong Wang

We consider the classical problem of learning, with arbitrary accuracy, the natural parameters of a $k$-parameter truncated \textit{minimal} exponential family from i.i.d. samples in a computationally and statistically efficient manner. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Abhin Shah , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

Deciding what to sense is a crucial task, made harder by dependencies and by a nonadditive utility function. We develop approximation algorithms for selecting an optimal set of measurements, under a dependency structure modeled by a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-06-18 Yan Radovilsky , Solomon Eyal Shimony

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

Ordinary Differential Equations are widespread tools to model chemical, physical, biological process but they usually rely on parameters which are of critical importance in terms of dynamic and need to be estimated directly from the data.…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-29 Nicolas Brunel , Quentin Clairon

We describe the shrinking neighborhood approach of Robust Statistics, which applies to general smoothly parametrized models, especially, exponential families. Equal generality is achieved by object oriented implementation of the optimally…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-08-04 Matthias Kohl , Peter Ruckdeschel , Helmut Rieder

State-space models have been used in many applications, including econometrics, engineering, medical research, etc. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the static parameter of general state-space models is not straightforward because…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-04 Yuxiong Gao , Wentao Li , Rong Chen

We introduce a new method for solving nonlinear continuous optimization problems with chance constraints. Our method is based on a reformulation of the probabilistic constraint as a quantile function. The quantile function is approximated…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Alejandra Peña-Ordieres , James R. Luedtke , Andreas Wächter

We design a new distribution over $\poly(r \eps^{-1}) \times n$ matrices $S$ so that for any fixed $n \times d$ matrix $A$ of rank $r$, with probability at least 9/10, $\norm{SAx}_2 = (1 \pm \eps)\norm{Ax}_2$ simultaneously for all $x \in…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Kenneth L. Clarkson , David P. Woodruff

Covariance matrix estimation is an important problem in multivariate data analysis, both from theoretical as well as applied points of view. Many simple and popular covariance matrix estimators are known to be severely affected by model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-21 Soumya Chakraborty , Ayanendranath Basu , Abhik Ghosh

Modeling long-range dependencies in sequential data is a crucial step in sequence learning. A recently developed model, the Structured State Space (S4), demonstrated significant effectiveness in modeling long-range sequences. However, It is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Jiqun Chu , Zuoquan Lin

A composite likelihood is a non-genuine likelihood function that allows to make inference on limited aspects of a model, such as marginal or conditional distributions. Composite likelihoods are not proper likelihoods and need therefore…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-06 Michele Lambardi di San Miniato , Nicola Sartori

We present a framework to train a structured prediction model by performing smoothing on the inference algorithm it builds upon. Smoothing overcomes the non-smoothness inherent to the maximum margin structured prediction objective, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-11 Krishna Pillutla , Vincent Roulet , Sham M. Kakade , Zaid Harchaoui

Randomized smoothing has shown promising certified robustness against adversaries in classification tasks. Despite such success with only zeroth-order access to base models, randomized smoothing has not been extended to a general form of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Aref Miri Rekavandi , Olga Ohrimenko , Benjamin I. P. Rubinstein

In this paper, we introduce a variant of spectral sparsification, called probabilistic $(\varepsilon,\delta)$-spectral sparsification. Roughly speaking, it preserves the cut value of any cut $(S,S^{c})$ with an $1\pm\varepsilon$…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2014-01-03 Yin Tat Lee

In this paper, we explore statistical versus computational trade-off to address a basic question in the application of a distributed algorithm: what is the minimal computational cost in obtaining statistical optimality? In smoothing spline…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng