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Precisely tracking uncertainties is crucial for robots to successfully and safely operate in unstructured and dynamic environments. We present a probabilistic framework to precisely keep track of uncertainties throughout the entire…

Robotics · Computer Science 2019-01-07 Huy Nguyen , Quang-Cuong Pham

To take unit commitment (UC) decisions under uncertain net load, most studies utilize a stochastic UC (SUC) model that adopts a one-size-fits-all representation of uncertainty. Disregarding contextual information such as weather forecasts…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-12-01 Ogun Yurdakul , Feng Qiu , Sahin Albayrak

The need for control strategies that can address dynamic system uncertainty is becoming increasingly important. In this work, we propose a Model Predictive Control by quantifying the risk of failure in our system model. The proposed control…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-17 Mostafa Tavakkoli Anbarani , Efe C. Balta , Rômulo Meira-Góes , Ilya Kovalenko

This paper introduces a novel uncertainty quantification framework for regression models where the response takes values in a separable metric space, and the predictors are in a Euclidean space. The proposed algorithms can efficiently…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-09 Gábor Lugosi , Marcos Matabuena

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-13 Thom Badings , Thiago D. Simão , Marnix Suilen , Nils Jansen

Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-07 Maximilian Blesch , Philipp Eisenhauer

This paper addresses the issues of conservativeness and computational complexity of probabilistic robustness analysis. We solve both issues by defining a new sampling strategy and robustness measure. The new measure is shown to be much less…

Applications · Statistics 2008-05-12 Xinjia Chen , Kemin Zhou , Jorge L. Aravena

This paper compares two different frameworks recently introduced in the literature for measuring risk in a multi-period setting. The first corresponds to applying a single coherent risk measure to the cumulative future costs, while the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-19 Dan A. Iancu , Marek Petrik , Dharmashankar Subramanian

Knowing the uncertainty in a prediction is critical when making expensive investment decisions and when patient safety is paramount, but machine learning (ML) models in drug discovery typically provide only a single best estimate and ignore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Stanley E. Lazic , Dominic P. Williams

To build robust, fair, and safe AI systems, we would like our classifiers to say ``I don't know'' when facing test examples that are difficult or fall outside of the training classes.The ubiquitous strategy to predict under uncertainty is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-22 Kamalika Chaudhuri , David Lopez-Paz

This paper deals with the problem of formulating an adaptive Model Predictive Control strategy for constrained uncertain systems. We consider a linear system, in presence of bounded time varying additive uncertainty. The uncertainty is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-13 Monimoy Bujarbaruah , Xiaojing Zhang , Marko Tanaskovic , Francesco Borrelli

Motion Planning under uncertainty is critical for safe self-driving. In this paper, we propose a unified obstacle avoidance framework that deals with 1) uncertainty in ego-vehicle motion; and 2) prediction uncertainty of dynamic obstacles…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-10-22 Shivesh Khaitan , Qin Lin , John M. Dolan

Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…

Conditional risk minimization arises in high-stakes decisions where risk must be assessed in light of side information, such as stressed economic conditions, specific customer profiles, or other contextual covariates. Constructing reliable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-30 Xinqiao Xie , Jonathan Yu-Meng Li

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 David Widmann , Fredrik Lindsten , Dave Zachariah

This paper presents a general framework for estimating high-dimensional conditional latent factor models via constrained nuclear norm regularization. We establish large sample properties of the estimators and provide efficient algorithms…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-09 Qihui Chen

This paper introduces marginal fairness, a new individual fairness notion for equitable decision-making in the presence of protected attributes such as gender, race, and religion. This criterion ensures that decisions based on generalized…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-27 Fei Huang , Silvana M. Pesenti

We propose a robust risk measurement approach that minimizes the expectation of overestimation plus underestimation costs. We consider uncertainty by taking the supremum over a collection of probability measures, relating our approach to…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-27 Marcelo Brutti Righi , Fernanda Maria Müller , Marlon Ruoso Moresco

Deep unrolling is an emerging deep learning-based image reconstruction methodology that bridges the gap between model-based and purely deep learning-based image reconstruction methods. Although deep unrolling methods achieve…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-21 Canberk Ekmekci , Mujdat Cetin

Many important problems in the real world don't have unique solutions. It is thus important for machine learning models to be capable of proposing different plausible solutions with meaningful probability measures. In this work we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-28 Di Qiu , Lok Ming Lui