Related papers: Likelihood inference for exponential-trawl process…
This paper develops likelihood-based methods for estimation, inference, model selection, and forecasting of continuous-time integer-valued trawl processes. The full likelihood of integer-valued trawl processes is, in general, highly…
We consider trawl processes, which are stationary and infinitely divisible stochastic processes and can describe a wide range of statistical properties, such as heavy tails and long memory. In this paper, we develop the first…
We introduce a class of discrete time stationary trawl processes taking real or integer values and written as sums of past values of independent `seed' processes on shrinking intervals (`trawl heights'). Related trawl processes in…
We study long time behavior of integrated trawl processes introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen. The trawl processes form a class of stationary infinitely divisible processes, described by an infinitely divisible random measure (L\'evy base) and…
Trawl processes belong to the class of continuous-time, strictly stationary, infinitely divisible processes; they are defined as Levy bases evaluated over deterministic trawl sets. This article presents the first nonparametric estimator of…
This article introduces the class of periodic trawl processes, which are continuous-time, infinitely divisible, stationary stochastic processes, that allow for periodicity and flexible forms of their serial correlation, including both…
Trawl processes are continuous-time, stationary and infinitely divisible processes which can describe a wide range of possible serial correlation patterns in data. In this paper, we introduce new simulation algorithms for trawl processes…
Inference for partially observed Markov process models has been a longstanding methodological challenge with many scientific and engineering applications. Iterated filtering algorithms maximize the likelihood function for partially observed…
This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…
We introduce EVIL (\textbf{EV}olving \textbf{I}nterpretable algorithms with \textbf{L}LMs), an approach that uses LLM-guided evolutionary search to discover simple, interpretable algorithms for dynamical systems inference. Rather than…
Trawl processes are a family of continuous-time, infinitely divisible, stationary processes whose correlation structure is entirely characterized by their so-called trawl function. This paper investigates the problem of estimating…
This article presents a new continuous-time modelling framework for multivariate time series of counts which have an infinitely divisible marginal distribution. The model is based on a mixed moving average process driven by L\'{e}vy noise -…
Stochastic processes defined on integer valued state spaces are popular within the physical and biological sciences. These models are necessary for capturing the dynamics of small systems where the individual nature of the populations…
A method for nonlinear topology identification is proposed, based on the assumption that a collection of time series are generated in two steps: i) a vector autoregressive process in a latent space, and ii) a nonlinear, component-wise,…
The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm is a versatile tool for model parameter estimation in latent data models. When processing large data sets or data stream however, EM becomes intractable since it requires the whole data set to be…
In this work we derive limit theorems for trawl processes. First,we study the asymptotic behaviour of the partial sums of the discretized trawl process $(X_{i\Delta_{n}})_{i=0}^{\lfloor nt\rfloor-1}$, under the assumption that as…
Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…
We study the limiting behavior of continuous time trawl processes which are defined using an infinitely divisible random measure of a time dependent set. In this way one is able to define separately the marginal distribution and the…
We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other…
This article surveys computational methods for posterior inference with intractable likelihoods, that is where the likelihood function is unavailable in closed form, or where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible. We review recent…