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We study empirical Bayes (EB) predictive density estimation in linear mixed models (LMMs) with large number of units, which induce a high dimensional random effects space. Focusing on Kullback Leibler (KL) risk minimization, we develop a…

Bayesian predictive densities when the observed data $x$ and the target variable $y$ to be predicted have different distributions are investigated by using the framework of information geometry. The performance of predictive densities is…

State of the art large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on a variety of benchmark tasks and are increasingly used as components in larger applications, where LLM-based predictions serve as proxies for human…

In applications of Bayesian procedures, once a class of priors has been chosen, it may be tempting to fix the prior's hyperparameters from the data, in an empirical Bayes (EB) fashion, usually by their maximum marginal likelihood estimates…

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By…

We study the rate of Bayesian consistency for hierarchical priors consisting of prior weights on a model index set and a prior on a density model for each choice of model index. Ghosal, Lember and Van der Vaart [2] have obtained general…

We introduce a new updating rule, the conditional maximum likelihood rule (CML) for updating ambiguous information. The CML formula replaces the likelihood term in Bayes' rule with the maximal likelihood of the given signal conditional on…

In a mixture of linear regression model, the regression coefficients are treated as random vectors that may follow either a continuous or discrete distribution. We propose two Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms to estimate this prior…

Modeling complex conditional distributions is critical in a variety of settings. Despite a long tradition of research into conditional density estimation, current methods employ either simple parametric forms or are difficult to learn in…

Naive Bayes classifiers have proven to be useful in many prediction problems with complete training data. Here we consider the situation where a naive Bayes classifier is trained with data where the response is right censored. Such…

In this paper, we consider Bayesian point estimation and predictive density estimation in the binomial case. After presenting preliminary results on these problems, we compare the risk functions of the Bayes estimators based on the…

Ordinal cumulative probability models (CPMs) -- also known as cumulative link models -- such as the proportional odds regression model are typically used for discrete ordered outcomes, but can accommodate both continuous and mixed…

Based on independently distributed $X_1 \sim N_p(\theta_1, \sigma^2_1 I_p)$ and $X_2 \sim N_p(\theta_2, \sigma^2_2 I_p)$, we consider the efficiency of various predictive density estimators for $Y_1 \sim N_p(\theta_1, \sigma^2_Y I_p)$, with…

We study the Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimator (NPMLE) for estimating Gaussian location mixture densities in $d$-dimensions from independent observations. Unlike usual likelihood-based methods for fitting mixtures, NPMLEs are based…

This paper shows that large nonparametric classes of conditional multivariate densities can be approximated in the Kullback--Leibler distance by different specifications of finite mixtures of normal regressions in which normal means and…

In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to…

We revisit the question of priors that achieve approximate matching of Bayesian and frequentist predictive probabilities. Such priors may be thought of as providing frequentist calibration of Bayesian prediction or simply as devices for…

We investigate predictive densities for multivariate normal models with unknown mean vectors and known covariance matrices. Bayesian predictive densities based on shrinkage priors often have complex representations, although they are…

We characterize conjugate nonparametric Bayesian models as projective limits of conjugate, finite-dimensional Bayesian models. In particular, we identify a large class of nonparametric models representable as infinite-dimensional analogues…

A novel data-driven methodology is presented for the joint selection of prior parameters for both fixed and random effects in Linear Mixed Models (LMMs). This approach facilitates the estimation of complex random-effects structures, as well…