Related papers: Applying Popper's Probability
This article reformulates the theory of computable physical models, previously introduced by the author, as a branch of applied model theory in first-order logic. It provides a semantic approach to the philosophy of science that…
The mathematics of classical probability theory was subsumed into classical measure theory by Kolmogorov in 1933. Quantum theory as nonclassical probability theory was incorporated into the beginnings of noncommutative measure theory by von…
Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…
Our interest is whether two binomial parameters differ, which parameter is larger, and by how much. This apparently simple problem was addressed by Fisher in the 1930's, and has been the subject of many review papers since then. Yet there…
Most attempts to argue for the second law of thermodynamics fail because (1) they use the unviable frequency theory of probability and (2) they do not explain why the arrow of time seen in experiments is aligned with the thermodynamic arrow…
(l) I have enough evidence to render the sentence S probable. (la) So, relative to what I know, it is rational of me to believe S. (2) Now that I have more evidence, S may no longer be probable. (2a) So now, relative to what I know, it is…
The classical PCP theorem is arguably the most important achievement of classical complexity theory in the past quarter century. In recent years, researchers in quantum computational complexity have tried to identify approaches and develop…
I proposed (8, 1, 3) that p values should be supplemented by an estimate of the false positive risk (FPR). FPR was defined as the probability that, if you claim that there is a real effect on the basis of p value from a single unbiased…
Employing a generalized definition of Pratt (1964) and Arrow's (1965, 1971) probability premium, we introduce a new concept of attitude towards probability. We illustrate in a problem of risk sharing that whether attitude towards…
Cromwell's rule (also known as the zero priors paradox) refers to the constraint of classical probability theory that if one assigns a prior probability of 0 or 1 to a hypothesis, then the posterior has to be 0 or 1 as well (this is a…
While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its…
This paper discusses, from a mathematician's point of view, the thesis formulated by Israel Gelfand, one of the greatest mathematicians of the 20th century, and one of the pioneers of mathematical biology: "There is only one thing which is…
This is a typeset version of Alan Turing's Second World War research paper \textit{The Applications of Probability to Cryptography}. A companion paper \textit{Paper on Statistics of Repetitions} is also available in typeset form from arXiv…
We reminisce and discuss applications of algorithmic probability to a wide range of problems in artificial intelligence, philosophy and technological society. We propose that Solomonoff has effectively axiomatized the field of artificial…
Following the death of Baron Lor\'{a}nd von E\"{o}tv\"{o}s in 1919, his collaborators Desiderius Pek\'{a}r and Eugen Fekete co-authored a paper in 1922 containing the results of a series of earlier experiments testing the identity of…
Recently we discovered (cond-mat/0212043) that the majority of scientific citations are copied from the lists of references used in other papers. Here we show that a model, in which a scientist picks three random papers, cites them,and also…
Contemporary societies are often "polarized", in the sense that sub-groups within these societies hold stably opposing beliefs, even when there is a fact of the matter. Extant models of polarization do not capture the idea that some beliefs…
A modification and generalisation of von Plato's fix of the frequency theory of probability is presented. It is thermodynamic in nature. Von Plato already fixed the logical circle in the frequency theory, we generalise his results to not…
Let L be some extension of classical propositional logic. The non-iterated probabilistic logic over L, is the logic PL that is defined by adding non-nested probabilistic operators in the language of L. For example in PL we can express a…
Early in the development of quantum theory Bohr introduced what came to be called the Copenhagen interpretation. Specifically, the square of the absolute value of the wave function was to be used as a probability density. There followed…