English
Related papers

Related papers: Tail Risk Constraints and Maximum Entropy

200 papers

In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn

We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-07 Wan-Chien Chiu , Juan Ignacio Peña , Chih-Wei Wang

The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-23 Richard Gerlach , Chao Wang

Previous literature shows that prevalent risk measures such as Value at Risk or Expected Shortfall are ineffective to curb excessive risk-taking by a tail-risk-seeking trader with S-shaped utility function in the context of portfolio…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-11-09 John Armstrong , Damiano Brigo , Alex S. L. Tse

This paper studies a continuous-time portfolio selection problem under a general distribution of random risk aversion (RRA). We provide a complete characterization of all deterministic equilibrium strategies in closed form. Our results show…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-02-02 Weilun Cheng , Zongxia Liang , Sheng Wang , Jianming Xia

Offline reinforcement-learning (RL) algorithms learn to make decisions using a given, fixed training dataset without online data collection. This problem setting is captivating because it holds the promise of utilizing previously collected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-07 Dan Elbaz , Gal Novik , Oren Salzman

Based on a recent theorem due to the authors, it is shown how the extreme tail dependence between an asset and a factor or index or between two assets can be easily calibrated. Portfolios constructed with stocks with minimal tail dependence…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-07 Mihaly Ormos , David Zibriczky

We study the tail behavior of the distribution of the sum of asymptotically independent risks whose marginal distributions belong to the maximal domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution. We impose conditions on the distribution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-29 Abhimanyu Mitra , Sidney I. Resnick

The fundamental principle in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is based on the quantification of the portfolio's risk related to performance. Although MPT has made huge impacts on the investment world and prompted the success and prevalence of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-02-15 Shi Yu , Haoran Wang , Chaosheng Dong

In order to properly manage risk, practitioners must understand the aggregate risks they are exposed to. Additionally, to properly price policies and calculate bonuses the relative riskiness of individual business units must be well…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-22 Andrew Fleck , Edward Furman , Yang Shen

We consider the evolution of scale-free networks according to preferential attachment schemes and show the conditions for which the exponent characterizing the degree distribution is bounded by upper and lower values. Our framework is an…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-01-07 João P. da Cruz , Pedro G. Lind

A drawdown constraint forces the current wealth to remain above a given function of its maximum to date. We consider the portfolio optimisation problem of maximising the long-term growth rate of the expected utility of wealth subject to a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-04-23 Vladimir Cherny , Jan Obloj

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-02 Makoto Takahashi , Yuta Yamauchi , Toshiaki Watanabe , Yasuhiro Omori

Portfolio selection in the periodic investment of securities modeled by a multivariate Merton model with dependent jumps is considered. The optimization framework is designed to maximize expected terminal wealth when portfolio risk is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-22 Bahareh Afhami , Mohsen Rezapour , Mohsen Madadi , Vahed Maroufy

Risk measures, which typically evaluate the impact of extreme losses, are highly sensitive to misspecification in the tails. This paper studies a robust optimization approach to combat tail uncertainty by proposing a unifying framework to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-12-09 Guanyu Jin , Roger J. A. Laeven , Dick den Hertog , Aharon Ben-Tal

As the increasing application of AI in finance, this paper will leverage AI algorithms to examine tail risk and develop a model to alter tail risk to promote the stability of US financial markets, and enhance the resilience of the US…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-08 Zong Ke , Yuchen Yin

Given a finite collection of stochastic alternatives, we study the problem of sequentially allocating a fixed sampling budget to identify the optimal alternative with a high probability, where the optimal alternative is defined as the one…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Dohyun Ahn , Taeho Kim

In the standard equilibrium and/or arbitrage pricing framework, the value of any asset is uniquely specified from the belief that only the systematic risks need to be remunerated by the market. Here, we show that, even for arbitrary large…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-02 Y. Malevergne , D. Sornette

The standard approach for constructing a Mean-Variance portfolio involves estimating parameters for the model using collected samples. However, since the distribution of future data may not resemble that of the training set, the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-12 Duy Khanh Lam