Related papers: Point Process-based Monte Carlo estimation
In many stochastic problems, the output of interest depends on an input random vector mainly through a single random variable (or index) via an appropriate univariate transformation of the input. We exploit this feature by proposing an…
We investigate the accuracy of the two most common estimators for the maximum expected value of a general set of random variables: a generalization of the maximum sample average, and cross validation. No unbiased estimator exists and we…
We introduce a general Monte Carlo method based on Nested Sampling (NS), for sampling complex probability distributions and estimating the normalising constant. The method uses one or more particles, which explore a mixture of nested…
Determinantal points processes are a promising but relatively under-developed tool in machine learning and statistical modelling, being the canonical statistical example of distributions with repulsion. While their mathematical formulation…
In this paper, we consider a classic problem concerning the high excursion probabilities of a Gaussian random field $f$ living on a compact set $T$. We develop efficient computational methods for the tail probabilities $P(\sup_T f(t) > b)$…
Given a bounded class of functions G and independent random variables X1, . . . , Xn, we provide an upper bound for the expectation of the supremum of the empirical process over elements of G having a small variance. Our bound applies in…
We introduce a new class of Monte Carlo based approximations of expectations of random variables such that their laws are only available via certain discretizations. Sampling from the discretized versions of these laws can typically…
We consider Monte Carlo approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator in models with intractable norming constants. This paper deals with adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms, which adjust control parameters in the course of simulation. We…
We consider the problem of estimating a nested structure of two expectations taking the form $U_0 = E[\max\{U_1(Y), \pi(Y)\}]$, where $U_1(Y) = E[X\ |\ Y]$. Terms of this form arise in financial risk estimation and option pricing. When…
We consider the problem of approximating the product of $n$ expectations with respect to a common probability distribution $\mu$. Such products routinely arise in statistics as values of the likelihood in latent variable models. Motivated…
This article considers stochastic algorithms for efficiently solving a class of large scale non-linear least squares (NLS) problems which frequently arise in applications. We propose eight variants of a practical randomized algorithm where…
In this note we study the numerical stability problem that may take place when calculating the cumulative distribution function of the {\it Hypoexponential} random variable. This computation is extensively used during the execution of Monte…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the probability distribution, the quantile or the conditional expectation above the quantile, the so called conditional-value-at-risk, of output quantities of complex random differential…
We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…
In Bayesian inference, we seek to compute information about random variables such as moments or quantiles on the basis of {available data} and prior information. When the distribution of random variables is {intractable}, Monte Carlo (MC)…
Consider a central problem in randomized approximation schemes that use a Monte Carlo approach. Given a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ with mean $\mu$ and standard deviation at most $c…
The problem we concentrate on is as follows: given (1) a convex compact set $X$ in ${\mathbb{R}}^n$, an affine mapping $x\mapsto A(x)$, a parametric family $\{p_{\mu}(\cdot)\}$ of probability densities and (2) $N$ i.i.d. observations of the…
In statistical data assimilation one seeks the largest maximum of the conditional probability distribution $P(\mathbf{X},\mathbf{p}|\mathbf{Y})$ of model states, $\mathbf{X}$, and parameters,$\mathbf{p}$, conditioned on observations…
We implement a discretization of the one-dimensional branching Brownian motion in the form of a Monte Carlo event generator, designed to efficiently produce ensembles of realizations in which the rightmost lead particle at the final time…
Simple Monte Carlo is a versatile computational method with a convergence rate of $O(n^{-1/2})$. It can be used to estimate the means of random variables whose distributions are unknown. Bernoulli random variables, $Y$, are widely used to…