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While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-12 Guneet S. Dhillon , George Deligiannidis , Tom Rainforth

Although a few methods have been developed recently for building confidence intervals after model selection, how to construct confidence sets for joint post-selection inference is still an open question. In this paper, we develop a new…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-19 Seunghyun Min , Qing Zhou

Bootstrap smoothed (bagged) estimators have been proposed as an improvement on estimators found after preliminary data-based model selection. Efron, 2014, derived a widely applicable formula for a delta method approximation to the standard…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-11 Paul Kabaila , Christeen Wijethunga

We derive a computationally convenient formula for the large sample coverage probability of a confidence interval for a scalar parameter of interest following a preliminary hypothesis test that a specified vector parameter takes a given…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-29 Paul Kabaila , Rupert E. H. Kuveke

The goal of any estimation study is an interval estimation of a the parameter(s) of interest. These estimations are mostly expressed using empirical confidence intervals that are based on sample point estimates of the corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-03 Ilya Novikov

This paper is concerned with general nonlinear regression models where the predictor variables are subject to Berkson-type measurement errors. The measurement errors are assumed to have a general parametric distribution, which is not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-08-21 Liqun Wang

We provide adaptive confidence intervals on a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters when some of the nuisance parameters have known signs. The confidence intervals are adaptive in the sense that they tend to be short…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-20 Philipp Ketz , Adam McCloskey

A subvector of predictor that satisfies the ignorability assumption, whose index set is called a sufficient adjustment set, is crucial for conducting reliable causal inference based on observational data. In this paper, we propose a general…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Wei Luo , Fei Qin , Lixing Zhu

In this paper, we propose new sequential estimation methods based on inclusion principle. The main idea is to reformulate the estimation problems as constructing sequential random intervals and use confidence sequences to control the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Xinjia Chen

We propose several prediction intervals procedures for the individual treatment effect with either finite-sample or asymptotic coverage guarantee in a non-parametric regression setting, where non-linear regression functions,…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Danijel Kivaranovic , Robin Ristl , Martin Posch , Hannes Leeb

We provide the asymptotic distribution of the major indexes used in the statistical literature to quantify disparate treatment in machine learning. We aim at promoting the use of confidence intervals when testing the so-called group…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-18 Philippe Besse , Eustasio del Barrio , Paula Gordaliza , Jean-Michel Loubes

We propose a simple and efficient approach to generate a prediction intervals (PI) for approximated and forecasted trends. Our method leverages a weighted asymmetric loss function to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the PI, with the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-20 Milo Grillo , Yunpeng Han , Agnieszka Werpachowska

For the quantification of QoE, subjects often provide individual rating scores on certain rating scales which are then aggregated into Mean Opinion Scores (MOS). From the observed sample data, the expected value is to be estimated. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-05 Tobias Hossfeld , Poul E. Heegaard , Martin Varela , Lea Skorin-Kapov

We present a new method for constructing a confidence interval for the mean of a bounded random variable from samples of the random variable. We conjecture that the confidence interval has guaranteed coverage, i.e., that it contains the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-05 Erik Learned-Miller , Philip S. Thomas

By employing various empirical estimators for the Mutual Information (MI) measure, we calculate and compare the estimates and their confidence intervals for both normal and non-normal bivariate data samples. We find that certain nonlinear…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Theo Grigorenko , Leo Grigorenko

For regression model selection via maximum likelihood estimation, we adopt a vector representation of candidate models and study the likelihood ratio confidence region for the regression parameter vector of a full model. We show that when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Min Tsao

In recent machine learning systems, confidence scores are being utilized more and more to manage selective prediction, whereby a model can abstain from making a prediction when it is unconfident. Yet, conventional metrics like accuracy,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Kourosh Shahnazari , Seyed Moein Ayyoubzadeh , Mohammadali Keshtparvar , Pegah Ghaffari

Linear models are foundational tools in statistics and ubiquitous across the applied sciences. However, conventional statistical inference -- such as $t$-tests and $F$-tests -- are only valid at fixed sample sizes, making them unsuitable…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Michael Lindon , Dae Woong Ham , Martin Tingley , Iavor Bojinov

We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Tim Ritmeester

We propose a unified framework to draw inferences for regression coefficients in a generalized linear model (GLM) following Lasso-based variable selection. We adapt to non-Gaussian GLMs a recently developed parametric programming strategy…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Qinyan Shen , Karl Gregory , Xianzheng Huang