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Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

Hyperparameter tuning is a challenging problem especially when the system itself involves uncertainty. Due to noisy function evaluations, optimization under uncertainty can be computationally expensive. In this paper, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Akash Yadav , Ruda Zhang

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

The ability to efficiently infer system parameters is essential in any signal-processing task that requires fast operation. Dealing with quantum systems, a serious challenge arises due to substantial growth of the underlying Hilbert space…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-04-23 Lewis A. Clark , Jan Kolodynski

Gaussian process regression has proven very powerful in statistics, machine learning and inverse problems. A crucial aspect of the success of this methodology, in a wide range of applications to complex and real-world problems, is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-18 Yifan Chen , Houman Owhadi , Andrew M. Stuart

We consider the problem of estimating means of two Gaussians in a 2-Gaussian mixture, which is not balanced and is corrupted by noise of an arbitrary distribution. We present a robust algorithm to estimate the parameters, together with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Jing Xu , Jakub Marecek

A Bayesian filtering algorithm is developed for a class of state-space systems that can be modelled via Gaussian mixtures. In general, the exact solution to this filtering problem involves an exponential growth in the number of mixture…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-03 Adrian G. Wills , Johannes Hendriks , Christopher Renton , Brett Ninness

We present BAE, a problem-tailored and noise-aware Bayesian algorithm for quantum amplitude estimation. In a fault tolerant scenario, BAE is capable of saturating the Heisenberg limit; if device noise is present, BAE can dynamically…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-09-17 Alexandra Ramôa , Luis Paulo Santos

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

We show that quantification of the performance of quantum-enhanced measurement schemes based on the concept of quantum Fisher information yields asymptotically equivalent results as the rigorous Bayesian approach, provided generic…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-01-13 Marcin Jarzyna , Rafal Demkowicz-Dobrzanski

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

This paper focuses on utilizing two different Bayesian methods to deal with a variety of toy problems which occur in data analysis. In particular we implement the Variational Bayesian and Nested Sampling methods to tackle the problems of…

Computation · Statistics 2010-03-23 Alan Tua , Kristian Zarb Adami

Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2023-05-31 Brandon Weiss , Jean-François Paquet , Steffen A. Bass

Bayesian field theory denotes a nonparametric Bayesian approach for learning functions from observational data. Based on the principles of Bayesian statistics, a particular Bayesian field theory is defined by combining two models: a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 J. C. Lemm

Bayesian optimisation is a popular technique for hyperparameter learning but typically requires initial exploration even in cases where similar prior tasks have been solved. We propose to transfer information across tasks using learnt…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Ho Chung Leon Law , Peilin Zhao , Lucian Chan , Junzhou Huang , Dino Sejdinovic

Quantum phase estimation (QPE) is the key subroutine of several quantum computing algorithms as well as a central ingredient in quantum computational chemistry and quantum simulation. While QPE strategies have focused on the estimation of a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2021-07-26 Valentin Gebhart , Augusto Smerzi , Luca Pezzè

Recent advancements in quantum hardware and classical computing simulations have significantly enhanced the accessibility of quantum system data, leading to an increased demand for precise descriptions and predictions of these systems.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-03-31 Zheng An , Jiahui Wu , Zidong Lin , Xiaobo Yang , Keren Li , Bei Zeng

Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Ivan Melev , Goeran Kauermann

In the context of data modeling and comparisons between different fit models, Bayesian analysis calls that model best which has the largest evidence, the prior-weighted integral over model parameters of the likelihood function. Evidence…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2016-07-20 Hans C. Eggers , Michiel B. de Kock , Thomas A. Trainor

In this work, we compare two powerful parameter estimation methods namely Bayesian inference and Neural Network based learning to study the quark matter equation of state with constant speed of sound parametrization and the structure of the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2020-12-16 Silvia Traversi , Prasanta Char
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