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We study an individual-based stochastic SIR epidemic model with infection-age dependent infectivity on a large random graph, capturing individual heterogeneity and non-homogeneous connectivity. Each individual is associated with particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Aurélien Velleret

The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is an epidemiological metric that represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual in a completely susceptible population. The methodology for calculating this…

Algebraic Topology · Mathematics 2025-12-05 Trevor Reckell , Beckett Sterner , Petar Jevtić

Network-based epidemic models have been extensively employed to understand the spread of infectious diseases, but have generally overlooked the fact that most realistic networks are dynamical rather than static. In this paper, we study a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-02-19 Xiao-Long Peng , Ze-Qiong Zhang , Junyuan Yang , Zhen Jin

We show that a certain model for the spread of an infection has a phase transition in the recuperation rate. The model is as follows: There are particles or individuals of type A and type B, interpreted as healthy and infected,…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Harry Kesten , Vladas Sidoravicius

We explore the emergence of persistent infection in a patch of population, where the disease progression of the individuals is given by the SIRS model and an individual becomes infected on contact with another infected individual. We…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-08 Vidit Agrawal , Promit Moitra , Sudeshna Sinha

We study a stochastic epidemic model with multiple patches (locations), where individuals in each patch are categorized into three compartments, Susceptible, Infected and Recovered/Removed, and may migrate from one patch to another in any…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Guodong Pang , Etienne Pardoux

Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-30 Laura Di Domenico , Eugenio Valdano , Vittoria Colizza

Consider a Markovian SIR epidemic model in a homogeneous community. To this model we add a rate at which individuals are tested, and once an infectious individual tests positive it is isolated and each of their contacts are traced and…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-08-08 Dongni Zhang , Tom Britton

In this paper we study a nonlinear infection viral propagation model with diffusion, in which, the left boundary is fixed and with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions, while the right boundary is free. We find that the habitat always…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2024-05-24 Mingxin Wang

The SIR model with spatially inhomogeneous infection rate is studied with numerical simulations in one, two, and three dimensions, considering the case that the infection spreads inhomogeneously in densely populated regions or hot spots. We…

Medical Physics · Physics 2020-12-25 Hidetsugu Sakaguchi , Yuta Nakao

We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-03-13 Hidetsugu Sakaguchi , Keito Yamasaki

This paper deals with a simplified SIS model, which describes the transmission of the disease in time-periodic heterogeneous environment. To understand the impact of spatial heterogeneity of environment and small advection on the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2015-10-14 Jing Ge , Chengxia Lei , Zhigui Lin

Age at infection is often an important factor in epidemic dynamics. In this paper a disease transmission model of SIS type with age dependent infection on a heterogeneous network is discussed. The model allows the infectious rate and the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Shanshan Chen , Michael Small , Yizhou Tao , Xinchu Fu

Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 Seth D. Temple , Jonathan Terhorst

In this paper we are concerned with the contact process with random recovery rates and edge weights on complete graph with $n$ vertices. We show that the model has a critical value which is inversely proportional to the product of the mean…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Xiaofeng Xue , Yu Pan

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to present a complex and costly challenge to public health programs. The preferences and social dynamics of a population can have a large impact on the course of an outbreak as well as the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-30 Michael A. L. Hayashi , Marisa C. Eisenberg

We introduce a mathematical description of the impact of sociality in the spread of infectious diseases by integrating an epidemiological dynamics with a kinetic modeling of population-based contacts. The kinetic description leads to study…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-02 G. Dimarco , B. Perthame , G. Toscani , M. Zanella

We introduce the effect of site contamination in a model for spatial epidemic spread and show that the presence of site contamination may have a strict effect on the model in the sense that it can make an otherwise subcritical process…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-23 Tom Britton , Maria Deijfen , Fabio Lopes

In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-07 Nicholas Landry

We analyze the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) process, a continuous-time Markov chain frequently employed in epidemiology to model the spread of infections on networks. In this framework, infections spread as infected…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Phuc Lam , Oanh Nguyen , Iris Yang