Related papers: How to analyze stochastic time series obeying a 2n…

The large deviations properties of trajectory observables for chaotic non-invertible deterministic maps as studied recently by N. R. Smith, Phys. Rev. E 106, L042202 (2022) and by R. Gutierrez, A. Canella-Ortiz, C. Perez-Espigares,…

Semi-Markov processes play an important role in the effective description of partially accessible systems in stochastic thermodynamics. They occur, for instance, in coarse-graining procedures such as state lumping and when analyzing waiting…

We describe a simple method that can be used to sample the rare fluctuations of discrete-time Markov chains. We focus on the case of Markov chains with well-defined steady-state measures, and derive expressions for the large-deviation rate…

First-order stochastic methods are the state-of-the-art in large-scale machine learning optimization owing to efficient per-iteration complexity. Second-order methods, while able to provide faster convergence, have been much less explored…

Consider a system evolving according to an absorbing discrete-time Markov chain with known transition matrix. The state of the system is observed at two points in time, separated by an unknown number of generations. We are interested in…

We study (backward) stochastic differential equations with noise coming from a finite state Markov chain. We show that, for the solutions of these equations to be `Markovian', in the sense that they are deterministic functions of the state…

Optimal designs minimize the number of experimental runs (samples) needed to accurately estimate model parameters, resulting in algorithms that, for instance, efficiently minimize parameter estimate variance. Governed by knowledge of past…

We investigate a generalised version of the recently proposed ordinal partition time series to network transformation algorithm. Firstly we introduce a fixed time lag for the elements of each partition that is selected using techniques from…

We propose a data-driven method to learn the time-dependent probability density of a multivariate stochastic process from sample paths, assuming that the initial probability density is known and can be evaluated. Our method uses a novel…

We prove quantitative convergence rates at which discrete Langevin-like processes converge to the invariant distribution of a related stochastic differential equation. We study the setup where the additive noise can be non-Gaussian and…

Even simply-defined, finite-state generators produce stochastic processes that require tracking an uncountable infinity of probabilistic features for optimal prediction. For processes generated by hidden Markov chains the consequences are…

Fitting models to data to obtain distributions of consistent parameter values is important for uncertainty quantification, model comparison, and prediction. Standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches for fitting ordinary…

We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is degenerate or low. More precisely, one is given access to a discrete time observation sequence which at any time $k$ depends only on the state of an…

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…

In this paper, we consider the stochastic Langevin equation with additive noises, which possesses both conformal symplectic geometric structure and ergodicity. We propose a methodology of constructing high weak order conformal symplectic…

This paper is the second in a series devoted to the study of Langevin systems subjected to a continuous time-delayed feedback control. The goal of our previous paper [Phys. Rev. E 91, 042114 (2015)] was to derive second-law-like…

Modeling the dynamics of non-stationary stochastic systems requires balancing the representational power of deep learning with the mathematical transparency of classical models. While classical Markov transition operators provide explicit,…

We consider the dynamics of a linear stochastic approximation algorithm driven by Markovian noise, and derive finite-time bounds on the moments of the error, i.e., deviation of the output of the algorithm from the equilibrium point of an…

This work aims at providing a new model for time series classification based on learning from just one example. We assume that time series can be well characterized as a parametric random process, a sort of Hidden semi-Markov Model…

In order to sample from a given target distribution (often of Gibbs type), the Monte Carlo Markov chain method consists in constructing an ergodic Markov process whose invariant measure is the target distribution. By sampling the Markov…