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A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Miguel González , Carmen Minuesa , Manuel Mota , Inés del Puerto , Alfonso Ramos

Splitting probabilities quantify the likelihood of a given outcome out of competitive events. This key observable of random walk theory, historically introduced as the gambler's ruin problem, is well understood for memoryless (Markovian)…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-04-01 M. Dolgushev , T. V. Mendes , B. Gorin , K. Xie , N. Levernier , O. Bénichou , H. Kellay , R. Voituriez , T. Guérin

Species sampling processes have long served as the fundamental framework for modeling random discrete distributions and exchangeable sequences. However, data arising from distinct but related sources require a broader notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-03 Beatrice Franzolini , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster , Giovanni Rebaudo

Kingman derived the Ewens sampling formula for random partitions describing the genetic variation in a neutral mutation model defined by a Poisson process of mutations along lines of descent governed by a simple coalescent process, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rui Dong , Alexander Gnedin , Jim Pitman

Many popular random partition models, such as the Chinese restaurant process and its two-parameter extension, fall in the class of exchangeable random partitions, and have found wide applicability in model-based clustering, population…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-21 Giuseppe Di Benedetto , François Caron , Yee Whye Teh

We exhibit conditions under which the flow of marginal distributions of a discontinuous semimartingale $\xi$ can be matched by a Markov process, whose infinitesimal generator is expressed in terms of the local characteristics of $\xi$. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-05-17 Amel Bentata , Rama Cont

We establish sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the existence and exponential ergodicity of the Q-process, the process…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-08-01 Aurélien Velleret

We explore the concept of a consistent exchangeable survival process - a joint distribution of survival times in which the risk set evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with homogeneous transition rates. We show a correspondence with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-10 Walter Dempsey , Peter McCullagh

For general, almost surely absorbed Markov processes, we obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for exponential convergence to a unique quasi-stationary distribution in the total variation norm. These conditions also ensure the…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-12-25 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

The embedding problem of Markov transition matrices into continuous-time Markov semigroups is a classic problem that regained a lot of impetus and activities in recent years. We consider it here for the following generalisation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Ellen Baake , Michael Baake

We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Marco Dalla Pria , Matteo Ruggiero , Dario Spanò

We consider a finite population processor-sharing (PS) queue, with Markovian arrivals and an exponential server. Such a queue can model an interactive computer system consisting of a bank of terminals in series with a central processing…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-12 Qiang Zhen , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden , Charles Knessl

A trophallaxis inspired model for distributed transport between randomly interacting agents Trophallaxis, the regurgitation and mouth to mouth transfer of liquid food between members of eusocial insect societies, is an important process…

Biological Physics · Physics 2017-08-16 Johannes Gräwer , Henrik Ronellenfitsch , Marco G. Mazza , Eleni Katifori

We establish a one-to-one correspondence between (i) exchangeable sequences of random variables whose finite-dimensional distributions are minimum (or maximum) infinitely divisible and (ii) non-negative, non-decreasing, infinitely divisible…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-21 Florian Brück , Jan-Frederik Mai , Matthias Scherer

We present an explicit construction of a Markovian random growth process on integer partitions such that given it visits some level $n$, it passes through any partition $\lambda$ of $n$ with equal probabilities. The construction has…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-01 Yuri Yakubovich

Exchangeability -- in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is invariant to reorderings of its elements -- implies the existence of a simple conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-25 Trevor Campbell , Saifuddin Syed , Chiao-Yu Yang , Michael I. Jordan , Tamara Broderick

This is an expository review paper illustrating the ``martingale method'' for proving many-server heavy-traffic stochastic-process limits for queueing models, supporting diffusion-process approximations. Careful treatment is given to an…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-28 Guodong Pang , Rishi Talreja , Ward Whitt

We establish the general equivalence between rare event process for arbitrary continuous functions whose maximal values are achieved on non-trivial sets, and the entry times distribution for arbitrary measure zero sets. We then use it to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-05-27 Fan Yang

We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-19 Simon Lee Dettmer , Johannes Berg

We introduce the Mass Migration Process (MMP), a conservative particle system on ${\mathbb N}^{{\mathbb Z}^d}$. It consists in jumps of $k$ particles ($k\ge 1$) between sites, with a jump rate depending only on the state of the system at…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-08 Lucie Fajfrova , Thierry Gobron , Ellen Saada
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