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Within the likes of any highly contagious and unpredictable disease, lies a predictable and attainable growth rate that researchers can find in order to make logistical conclusions about that particular disease and its affected regions'…

Applications · Statistics 2024-02-05 Julian Bennett , Lauren Eriksen , Xingjie Helen Li

To provide a comprehensive view for dynamics of and on many real-world temporal networks, we investigate the interplay of temporal connectivity patterns and spreading phenomena, in terms of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model on…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-07-23 Hyewon Kim , Meesoon Ha , Hawoong Jeong

We study the class of SIS epidemics on temporal networks and propose a new activity-driven and adaptive epidemic model that captures the impact of asymptomatic and infectious individuals in the network. In the proposed model, referred to as…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-04 Ashish R. Hota , Kavish Gupta

We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochastic projection, we are able to analytically determine the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2013-09-11 Eric Forgoston , Ira B. Schwartz

Social interactions are stratified in multiple contexts and are subject to complex temporal dynamics. The systematic study of these two features of social systems has started only very recently mainly thanks to the development of multiplex…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-12-12 Quan-Hui Liu , Xinyue Xiong , Qian Zhang , Nicola Perra

In this work we review a class of deterministic nonlinear models for the propagation of infectious diseases over contact networks with strongly-connected topologies. We consider network models for susceptible-infected (SI),…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-01-13 Wenjun Mei , Shadi Mohagheghi , Sandro Zampieri , Francesco Bullo

We present a modified \emph{susceptible-infected-susceptible} (SIS) model on complex networks, small-world and scale-free, to study epidemic spreading with the effect of time delay which is introduced to the infected phase. Considering the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Xin-Jian Xu , Hai-Ou Peng , Xiao-Mei Wang , Ying-Hai Wang

Using the continuous-time susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on networks, we investigate the problem of inferring the class of the underlying network when epidemic data is only available at population-level (i.e. the number of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-12-05 F. Di Lauro , J. -C. Croix , M. Dashti , L. Berthouze , I. Z. Kiss

We extend the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to a network-based framework where the degree distribution of nodes follows a Poisson distribution. This extension incorporates an additional parameter representing the mean…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-03 Josephine K. Wairimu , Andrew Gothard , Grzegorz A. Rempala

A class of multiple-timescale asymptotic solutions to the equations of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model is presented for the case of high basic reproduction number, with the inverse of the latter employed as the expansion…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-25 Oleg B. Shiryaev

Epidemic models are increasingly used in real-world networks to understand diffusion phenomena (such as the spread of diseases, emotions, innovations, failures) or the transport of information (such as news, memes in social on-line…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-12-06 Piet Van Mieghem

We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-07 Chao-Ran Cai , Zhi-Xi Wu , Petter Holme

The S.I.R. model (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered or Died) was proposed by chemistry Willam Kermack (1927) and the mathematician G. Mc. Kendrick (1932). the model supposes to divide to the individuals of a population in three categories.…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2007-05-23 Horacio Castellini , Lilia Romanelli

This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-06-12 Rocío Balderrama , Mariana Inés Prieto , Constanza Sánchez de la Vega , Federico Vazquez

An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-21 V. T. Volov , A. P. Zubarev

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-19 Rose Baker

This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Frank G Ball , Edward S Knock , Philip D O'Neill

The course of an epidemic is not only shaped by infection transmission over face-to-face contacts, but also by preventive behaviour caused by risk perception and social interactions. This study explores the dynamics of coupled awareness and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-02-24 Tim Van Wesemael , Luis E. C. Rocha , Jan M. Baetens

We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-23 Tanneke Ouboter , Ronald Meester , Pieter Trapman

We study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on a random graph chosen uniformly over all graphs with certain critical, heavy-tailed degree distributions. For this model, each vertex infects all its susceptible neighbors and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-14 David Clancy