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Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-17 Jie Ding , Mohammad Noshad , Vahid Tarokh

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

In this article, we introduce and study a one sided tempered stable first order autoregressive model called TAR(1). Under the assumption of stationarity of the model, the marginal probability density function of the error term is found. It…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-07-30 Niharika Bhootna , Arun Kumar

Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-25 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

We study the problem of robust time series analysis under the standard auto-regressive (AR) time series model in the presence of arbitrary outliers. We devise an efficient hard thresholding based algorithm which can obtain a consistent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-07-04 Kush Bhatia , Prateek Jain , Parameswaran Kamalaruban , Purushottam Kar

In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-13 Jie Ding , Mohammad Noshad , Vahid Tarokh

In this paper we discuss the results recently published in~[1] about algebraic signal models (ASMs) based on non commutative algebras and their use in convolutional neural networks. Relying on the general tools from algebraic signal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-09 Alejandro Parada-Mayorga , Landon Butler , Alejandro Ribeiro

Autoregressive (AR) modeling is invaluable in signal processing, in particular in speech and audio fields. Attempts in the literature can be found that regularize or constrain either the time-domain signal values or the AR coefficients,…

Audio and Speech Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-06 Ondřej Mokrý , Pavel Rajmic

We propose a first-order autoregressive (i.e. AR(1)) model for dynamic network processes in which edges change over time while nodes remain unchanged. The model depicts the dynamic changes explicitly. It also facilitates simple and…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Binyan Jiang , Jailing Li , Qiwei Yao

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a linear univariate autoregressive model with sub-Gaussian innovations from a limited sequence of consecutive observations. Assuming that the parameters are compressible, we analyze…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-04-05 Abbas Kazemipour , Sina Miran , Piya Pal , Behtash Babadi , Min Wu

The paper examines the problem of representing the dynamics of low order autoregressive (AR) models with time varying (TV) coefficients. The existing literature computes the forecasts of the series from a recursion relation. Instead, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-14 Menelaos Karanasos , Alexandros Paraskevopoulos , Stavros Dafnos

This paper deals with data-driven stability analysis and feedback stabillization of linear input-output systems in autoregressive (AR) form. We assume that noisy input-output data on a finite time-interval have been obtained from some…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-20 Henk J. van Waarde , Jaap Eising , M. Kanat Camlibel , Harry L. Trentelman

Stochastic processes generated by non-stationary distributions are difficult to represent with conventional models such as Gaussian processes. This work presents Recurrent Autoregressive Flows as a method toward general stochastic process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-20 John Mern , Peter Morales , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

One of the cornerstones of the field of signal processing on graphs are graph filters, direct analogues of classical filters, but intended for signals defined on graphs. This work brings forth new insights on the distributed graph filtering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-09-18 Elvin Isufi , Andreas Loukas , Andrea Simonetto , Geert Leus

This article is concerned with the identification of autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) models. Most of the existing approaches like prediction error minimization and state-space framework are widely accepted and utilized for the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-08-12 Deepak Maurya , Arun K. Tangirala , Shankar Narasimhan

Autoregressive (AR) models remain widely used in time series analysis due to their interpretability, but convencional parameter estimation methods can be computationally expensive and prone to convergence issues. This paper proposes a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Anaísa Lucena , Ana Martins , Armando J. Pinho , Sónia Gouveia

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-03 Emiel Hoogeboom , Alexey A. Gritsenko , Jasmijn Bastings , Ben Poole , Rianne van den Berg , Tim Salimans

Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-15 Zhe Wang , Jiaxin Shi , Nicolas Heess , Arthur Gretton , Michalis K. Titsias

Non-stationary signals are ubiquitous in real life. Many techniques have been proposed in the last decades which allow decomposing multi-component signals into simple oscillatory mono-components, like the groundbreaking Empirical Mode…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Giovanni Barbarino , Antonio Cicone

The problem of adversarial examples has shown that modern Neural Network (NN) models could be rather fragile. Among the more established techniques to solve the problem, one is to require the model to be {\it $\epsilon$-adversarially…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-17 Yuxin Wen , Shuai Li , Kui Jia
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