Related papers: Weak Convergence of a Seasonally Forced Stochastic…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…
For a uniform process $\{ X_t: t\in E\}$ (by which $X_t $ is uniformly distributed on $(0,1)$ for $t\in E$) and a function $w(x)>0$ on $(0,1)$, we give a sufficient condition for the weak convergence of the empirical process based on $\{…
We consider the empirical measures of multi-type voter models with mutation on large finite sets, and prove their weak atomic convergence in the sense of Ethier and Kurtz (1994) toward a Fleming-Viot process. Convergence in the weak atomic…
We prove uniform convergence results for the integrated periodogram of a weakly dependent time series, namely a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem. These results are applied to Whittle's parametric estimation. Under general…
Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…
We offer an umbrella type result which extends weak convergence of the classical empirical process on the line to that of more general processes indexed by functions of bounded variation. This extension is not contingent on the type of…
We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
We consider the empirical process G_t of a one-dimensional diffusion with finite speed measure, indexed by a collection of functions F. By the central limit theorem for diffusions, the finite-dimensional distributions of G_t converge weakly…
We introduce a simple multiplicative model to describe the temporal behavior and the ultimate outcome of an epidemic. Our model accounts, in a minimalist way, for the competing influences of imposing public-health restrictions when the…
We consider triangular arrays of Markov chains that converge weakly to a diffusion process. Second order Edgeworth type expansions for transition densities are proved. The paper differs from recent results in two respects. We allow…
The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…
This paper studies the distribution function of the time of extinction of a subcritical epidemic, when a large enough proportion of the population has been immunized and/or the infectivity of the infectious individuals has been reduced, so…
We analyse a stochastic SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of…
Assuming that $(X_t)_{t\in\Z}$ is a vector valued time series with a common marginal distribution admitting a density $f$, our aim is to provide a wide range of consistent estimators of $f$. We consider different methods of estimation of…
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in…
We exhibit a scaling law for the critical SIS stochastic epidemic: If at time 0 the population consists of square root N infected and N - square root N susceptible individuals, then when time and number currently infected are both scaled by…
Epidemic spreading often occurs in spatially heterogeneous environments, yet how quenched heterogeneity reshapes its onset and critical dynamics remains poorly understood. The diffusive epidemic process, a minimal reaction-diffusion model…
Approximating the time to extinction of infection is an important problem in infection modelling. A variety of different approaches have been proposed in the literature. We study the performance of a number of such methods, and characterize…