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The interpretation of cosmological observables requires the use of increasingly sophisticated theoretical models. Since these models are becoming computationally very expensive and display non-trivial uncertainties, the use of standard…
Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…
State space models have long played an important role in signal processing. The Gaussian case can be treated algorithmically using the famous Kalman filter. Similarly since the 1970s there has been extensive application of Hidden Markov…
Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…
Despite the enormous success of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and related Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, sampling often still represents the computational bottleneck in scientific applications. Availability of parallel resources can…
We present a novel technique for amortized posterior estimation using Normalizing Flows trained with likelihood-weighted importance sampling. This approach allows for the efficient inference of theoretical parameters in high-dimensional…
This paper presents a probabilistic perspective on iterative methods for approximating the solution $\mathbf{x}_* \in \mathbb{R}^d$ of a nonsingular linear system $\mathbf{A} \mathbf{x}_* = \mathbf{b}$. In the approach a standard iterative…
We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…
We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for prediction- and information extraction tasks with an efficient inference scheme. It models categorical-valued time series that exhibit dynamics from multiple underlying patterns (e.g.…
In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we…
We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to generate samples from probability distributions supported on a $d$-dimensional lattice $\Lambda = \mathbf{B}\mathbb{Z}^d$, where $\mathbf{B}$ is a full-rank matrix. Specifically,…
We develop Bayesian predictive stacking for geostatistical models, where the primary inferential objective is to provide inference on the latent spatial random field and conduct spatial predictions at arbitrary locations. We exploit…
We propose a new framework for how to use sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGM). Via a sequential decomposition of the PGM we find a sequence of auxiliary distributions defined on a…
Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: i.e., the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g.,…
An easy-to-implement form of the Metropolis Algorithm is described which, unlike most standard techniques, is well suited to sampling from multi-modal distributions on spaces with moderate numbers of dimensions (order ten) in environments…
Reconciling the tension between inductive learning and deductive reasoning in first-order relational domains is a longstanding challenge in AI. We study the problem of answering queries in a first-order relational probabilistic logic…
We propose a framework for computing, optimizing and integrating with respect to a smooth marginal likelihood in statistical models that involve high-dimensional parameters/latent variables and continuous low-dimensional hyperparameters.…
Variational inference methods have been shown to lead to significant improvements in the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian inference in mixed multinomial logit models when compared to standard Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…
Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are powerful tools for representing statistical dependencies through graphs in high-dimensional systems. However, they are limited to pairwise interactions. In this work, we propose the simplicial…
Graphical models use graphs to compactly capture stochastic dependencies amongst a collection of random variables. Inference over graphical models corresponds to finding marginal probability distributions given joint probability…