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Related papers: Probability Theory without Bayes' Rule

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The probability distribution P from which the history of our universe is sampled represents a theory of everything or TOE. We assume P is formally describable. Since most (uncountably many) distributions are not, this imposes a strong…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Juergen Schmidhuber

When testing a statistical hypothesis, is it legitimate to deliberate on the basis of initial data about whether and how to collect further data? Game-theoretic probability's fundamental principle for testing by betting says yes, provided…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-30 Glenn Shafer

The ``impossibility theorem'' -- which is considered foundational in algorithmic fairness literature -- asserts that there must be trade-offs between common notions of fairness and performance when fitting statistical models, except in two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Andrew Bell , Lucius Bynum , Nazarii Drushchak , Tetiana Herasymova , Lucas Rosenblatt , Julia Stoyanovich

In inference problems involving a multi-dimensional parameter $\theta$, it is often natural to consider decision rules that have a risk which is invariant under some group $G$ of permutations of $\theta$. We show that this implies that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-01 Erik van Zwet

A fundamental problem in science is how to make logical inferences from scientific data. Mere data does not suffice since additional information is necessary to select a domain of models or hypotheses and thus determine the likelihood of…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2015-06-17 Moorad Alexanian

We present a comparative study between classical probability and quantum probability from the Bayesian viewpoint, where probability is construed as our rational degree of belief on whether a given statement is true. From this viewpoint,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-05 Tsubasa Ichikawa

Inference is the process of using facts we know to learn about facts we do not know. A theory of inference gives assumptions necessary to get from the former to the latter, along with a definition for and summary of the resulting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Beau Coker , Cynthia Rudin , Gary King

Given a universe of discourse X-a domain of possible outcomes-an experiment may consist of selecting one of its elements, subject to the operation of chance, or of observing the elements, subject to imprecision. A priori uncertainty about…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-26 Arthur Ramer

There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or $w$-prior) which unifies objective Bayes and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-26 Colin H. LaMont , Paul A. Wiggins

After surveying classical results, we introduce a generalized notion of inference system to support structural recursion on non-well-founded data types. Besides axioms and inference rules with the usual meaning, a generalized inference…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-04-23 Francesco Dagnino

We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-17 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

It is argued from several points of view that quantum probabilities might play a role in statistical settings. New approaches toward quantum foundations have postulates that appear to be equally valid in macroscopic settings. One such…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-06-26 Inge S. Helland

The definition of the conditional probability is very important in the theory of the probability. This definition is based on the fact, that random events can be simultaneously measurable. This paper deal with the problem of conditioning…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Olga Nanasiova

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hedibert F. Lopes , Nicholas G. Polson

When dealing with Bayesian inference the choice of the prior often remains a debatable question. Empirical Bayes methods offer a data-driven solution to this problem by estimating the prior itself from an ensemble of data. In the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-13 Ilja Klebanov , Alexander Sikorski , Christof Schütte , Susanna Röblitz

It is suggested that an AI inference system should reflect an inference policy that is tailored to the domain of problems to which it is applied -- and furthermore that an inference policy need not conform to any general theory of rational…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Paul E. Lehner

The main result presented in this article is that probability can fundamentally be characterized as a subset of conditional expectation induced by a plausible preorder on random quantities. This is justified by the fact that probability is…

Logic · Mathematics 2024-06-14 Ladislav Mečíř

We consider the problem of inferring the probability distribution associated with a language, given data consisting of an infinite sequence of elements of the languge. We do this under two assumptions on the algorithms concerned: (i) like a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-07-16 Paul M. B. Vitanyi , Nick Chater

This paper gives new foundations of quantum state reduction without appealing to the projection postulate for the probe measurement. For this purpose, the quantum Bayes principle is formulated as the most fundamental principle for…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-06-06 Masanao Ozawa

In the deterministic context Bakushinskii's theorem excludes the existence of purely data driven convergent regularization for ill-posed problems. We will prove in the present work that in the statistical setting we can either construct a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-05-20 Saskia Becker