Related papers: Unbiased Monte Carlo: posterior estimation for int…

There is a lack of methodological results to design efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for statistical models with discrete-valued high-dimensional parameters. Motivated by this consideration, we propose a simple framework…

An efficient conditioning technique, the so-called Brownian Bridge simulation, has previously been applied to eliminate pricing bias that arises in applications of the standard discrete-time Monte Carlo method to evaluate options written on…

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

We study the problem of multifidelity uncertainty propagation for computationally expensive models. In particular, we consider the general setting where the high-fidelity and low-fidelity models have a dissimilar parameterization both in…

Stochastic economic dispatch models address uncertainties in forecasts of renewable generation output by considering a finite number of realizations drawn from a stochastic process model, typically via Monte Carlo sampling. Accurate…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that allows to sample high dimensional probability measures. It relies on the integration of the Hamiltonian dynamics to propose a move which is then accepted or rejected…

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

In this paper we build on previous work which uses inferences techniques, in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to solve parameterized control problems. We propose a number of modifications in order to make this approach…

We present a new approach to sample from generic binary distributions, based on an exact Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm applied to a piecewise continuous augmentation of the binary distribution of interest. An extension of this idea to…

The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is a widely recognised as an efficient method for sampling a specified posterior distribution. However, when the posterior is multi-modal, conventional MCMC algorithms either tend to become…

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. This setting is ubiquitous…

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

This paper is concerned with making Bayesian inference from data that are assumed to be drawn from a Bingham distribution. A barrier to the Bayesian approach is the parameter-dependent normalising constant of the Bingham distribution,…

In this paper we present an extension of population-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the trans-dimensional case. One of the main challenges in MCMC-based inference is that of simulating from high and trans-dimensional target…

Applying standard statistical methods after model selection may yield inefficient estimators and hypothesis tests that fail to achieve nominal type-I error rates. The main issue is the fact that the post-selection distribution of the data…

In this paper we introduce a new class of multivariate unimodal distributions, motivated by Khintchine's representation. We start by proposing a univariate model, whose support covers all the unimodal distributions on the real line. The…

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

We present a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for the uncertainty quantification of variably saturated porous media flow that are modeled using the Richards' equation. We propose a stochastic extension for the empirical models that are…

In this paper we propose to evaluate and compare Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate the parameters in a generalized extreme value model. We employed the Bayesian approach using traditional Metropolis-Hastings methods,…

The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned…