Related papers: Indirect Influences in International Trade
This paper studies the topological properties of the World Trade Web (WTW) and its evolution over time by employing a weighted network analysis. We show that the WTW, viewed as a weighted network, displays statistical features that are very…
Pesticides are important agricultural inputs to increase agricultural productivity and improve food security. The availability of pesticides is partially achieved through international trade. However, economies involved in the international…
This paper employs a weighted network approach to study the empirical properties of the web of trade relationships among world countries, and its evolution over time. We show that most countries are characterized by weak trade links; yet,…
Prediction is one of the major challenges in complex systems. The prediction methods have shown to be effective predictors of the evolution of networks. These methods can help policy makers to solve practical problems successfully and make…
The international trade network (ITN) has received renewed multidisciplinary interest due to recent advances in network theory. However, it is still unclear whether a network approach conveys additional, nontrivial information with respect…
This paper investigates the evolving dynamics of international trade, emphasizing the strategic interplay between competition and cooperation within the global trade network. It argues that competitive advantages - rather than traditional…
Network theory provides a rich toolbox consisting of methods, measures, and models for studying the structure and dynamics of complex systems found in nature, society, or technology. Recently, it has been pointed out that many real-world…
In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flows of major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a Network Disturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatial econometrics. The…
This paper explores the relationships between migration and trade using a complex-network approach. We show that: (i) both weighted and binary versions of the networks of international migration and trade are strongly correlated; (ii) such…
Economy, and consequently trade, is a fundamental part of human social organization which, until now, has not been studied within the network modelling framework. Networks are mathematical tools used in the modelling of a wide variety of…
The increasing integration of world economies, which organize in complex multilayer networks of interactions, is one of the critical factors for the global propagation of economic crises. We adopt the network science approach to quantify…
We propose a unified modelling framework that theoretically justifies the main empirical regularities characterizing the international trade network. Each country is associated to a Polya urn whose composition controls the propensity of the…
Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…
International trade is based on a set of complex relationships between different countries that can be modelled as an extremely dense network of interconnected agents. On the one hand, this network might favour the economic growth of…
The direct effect of one eventon another can be defined and measured byholding constant all intermediate variables between the two.Indirect effects present conceptual andpractical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be…
Various kinds of spread of influence occur in real world social and virtual networks. These phenomena are formulated by activation processes and irreversible dynamic monopolies in combinatorial graphs representing the topology of the…
In recent decades, trade between nations has constituted an important component of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with official estimates showing that it likely accounted for a quarter of total global production. While evidence of…
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction…
A non-parametric method for ranking stock indices according to their mutual causal influences is presented. Under the assumption that indices reflect the underlying economy of a country, such a ranking indicates which countries exert the…
This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of…