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We leverage multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) to improve the performance of multi-step look-ahead Bayesian optimization (BO) methods that involve nested expectations and maximizations. Often these expectations must be computed by Monte Carlo…
Symplectic integration algorithms are well-suited for long-term integrations of Hamiltonian systems because they preserve the geometric structure of the Hamiltonian flow. However, this desirable property is generally lost when adaptive…
Recently, the Hamilton Monte Carlo (HMC) has become widespread as one of the more reliable approaches to efficient sample generation processes. However, HMC is difficult to sample in a multimodal posterior distribution because the HMC chain…
We study convergence rates of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithms with leapfrog integration under mild conditions on stochastic gradient oracle for the target distribution (SGHMC). Our method extends standard HMC by allowing the use of…
Metropolis Monte Carlo simulation is a powerful tool for studying the equilibrium properties of matter. In complex condensed-phase systems, however, it is difficult to design Monte Carlo moves with high acceptance probabilities that also…
Quantitative long-time entropic convergence and short-time regularization are established for an idealized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo chain which alternatively follows an Hamiltonian dynamics for a fixed time and then partially or totally…
In this paper, we propose a novel and generic family of multiple importance sampling estimators. We first revisit the celebrated balance heuristic estimator, a widely used Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable…
We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…
We propose a methodology to parallelize Hamiltonian Monte Carlo estimators. Our approach constructs a pair of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo chains that are coupled in such a way that they meet exactly after some random number of iterations. These…
Monte Carlo integration is typically interpreted as an estimator of the expected value using stochastic samples. There exists an alternative interpretation in calculus where Monte Carlo integration can be seen as estimating a…
Bayesian reasoning in linear mixed-effects models (LMMs) is challenging and often requires advanced sampling techniques like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). A common approach is to write the model in a probabilistic programming language…
In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…
Importance sampling is a Monte Carlo method which designs estimators of expectations under a target distribution using weighted samples from a proposal distribution. When the target distribution is complex, such as multimodal distributions…
A method for the multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation of statistical quantities is proposed which is applicable to computational budgets of any size. Based on a sequence of optimization problems each with a globally minimizing…
Probabilistic programming uses programs to express generative models whose posterior probability is then computed by built-in inference engines. A challenging goal is to develop general purpose inference algorithms that work out-of-the-box…
We develop a novel Monte Carlo algorithm for the vector consisting of the supremum, the time at which the supremum is attained and the position at a given (constant) time of an exponentially tempered L\'evy process. The algorithm, based on…
Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…
We analyze the mixing time of Metropolized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) with the leapfrog integrator to sample from a distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ whose log-density is smooth, has Lipschitz Hessian in Frobenius norm and satisfies…
We introduce the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Particle Swarm Optimizer (HMC-PSO), an optimization algorithm that reaps the benefits of both Exponentially Averaged Momentum PSO and HMC sampling. The coupling of the position and velocity of each…
Hierarchical Bayesian inference is often conducted with estimates of the target distribution derived from Monte Carlo sums over samples from separate analyses of parts of the hierarchy or from mock observations used to estimate sensitivity…