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This paper advances the local projections (LP) method by addressing its inefficiency in high-frequency economic and financial data with volatility clustering. We incorporate a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity…
The vector autoregression (VAR) has long proven to be an effective method for modeling the joint dynamics of macroeconomic time series as well as forecasting. A major shortcoming of the VAR that has hindered its applicability is its heavy…
We propose a method for incorporating variable selection into local polynomial regression. This can improve the accuracy of the regression by extending the bandwidth in directions corresponding to those variables judged to be are…
We study the scalable multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with general utilities, defined as nonlinear functions of the team's long-term state-action occupancy measure. The objective is to find a localized policy that maximizes the…
The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…
We propose Learned Accept/Reject Sampling (LARS), a method for constructing richer priors using rejection sampling with a learned acceptance function. This work is motivated by recent analyses of the VAE objective, which pointed out that…
This paper proposes a novel method to estimate large panel data error-correction models with stationary/non-stationary covariates and spatially dependent errors, which allows for known/unknown group-specific patterns of slope heterogeneity.…
We introduce and study the Group Square-Root Lasso (GSRL) method for estimation in high dimensional sparse regression models with group structure. The new estimator minimizes the square root of the residual sum of squares plus a penalty…
Local projections (LP) and vector autoregressions (VAR) are the two standard tools for impulse response analysis, but they often display a finite-sample trade-off: LP is typically less biased but more volatile, while VAR is more precise but…
Standard methods, such as sequential procedures based on Johansen's (pseudo-)likelihood ratio (PLR) test, for determining the co-integration rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) system of variables integrated of order one can be…
Spatial regression models have a variety of applications in several fields ranging from economics to public health. Typically, it is of interest to select important exogenous predictors of the spatially autocorrelated response variable. In…
We study the nonparametric covariance estimation of a stationary Gaussian field X observed on a regular lattice. In the time series setting, some procedures like AIC are proved to achieve optimal model selection among autoregressive models.…
With the purpose of examining biased updates in variance-reduced stochastic gradient methods, we introduce SVAG, a SAG/SAGA-like method with adjustable bias. SVAG is analyzed in a cocoercive root-finding setting, a setting which yields the…
This paper presents a comprehensive local projections (LP) framework for estimating future responses to current shocks, robust to high-dimensional controls without relying on sparsity assumptions. The approach is applicable to various…
Large-scale sequential data is often exposed to some degree of inhomogeneity in the form of sudden changes in the parameters of the data-generating process. We consider the problem of detecting such structural changes in a high-dimensional…
Domain adaptation (DA) aims to enable a learning model trained from a source domain to generalize well on a target domain, despite the mismatch of data distributions between the two domains. State-of-the-art DA methods have so far focused…
Over-parameterized models like deep nets and random forests have become very popular in machine learning. However, the natural goals of continuity and differentiability, common in regression models, are now often ignored in modern…
Nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) and reservoir computing (RC) have shown promise in forecasting chaotic dynamical systems, such as the Lorenz-63 model and El Nino-Southern Oscillation. However, their reliance on fixed nonlinear…
In many applications, data come with a natural ordering. This ordering can often induce local dependence among nearby variables. However, in complex data, the width of this dependence may vary, making simple assumptions such as a constant…
Neural network potentials are a powerful tool for atomistic simulations, allowing to accurately reproduce \textit{ab initio} potential energy surfaces with computational performance approaching classical force fields. A central component of…