Related papers: Weak continuity of predictive distribution for Mar…

This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…

Let W be the number of points in (0,t] of a stationary finite-state Markov renewal point process. We derive a bound for the total variation distance between the distribution of W and a compound Poisson distribution. For any nonnegative…

Consider longitudinal networks whose edges turn on and off according to a discrete-time Markov chain with exponential-family transition probabilities. We characterize when their joint distributions are also exponential families with the…

In this paper, we consider semi-Markov processes whose transition times and transition probabilities depend on a small parameter $\varepsilon$. Understanding the asymptotic behavior of such processes is needed in order to study the…

We study Markov processes conditioned so that their local time must grow slower than a prescribed function. Building upon recent work on Brownian motion with constrained local time in [5] and [33], we study transience and recurrence for a…

This article is concerned with stability analysis and stabilization of randomly switched nonlinear systems. These systems may be regarded as piecewise deterministic stochastic systems: the discrete switches are triggered by a stochastic…

One of the proposed solutions to the equilibrium selection problem for agents learning in repeated games is obtained via the notion of stochastic stability. Learning algorithms are perturbed so that the Markov chain underlying the learning…

Dynamic networks exhibit temporal patterns that vary across different time scales, all of which can potentially affect processes that take place on the network. However, most data-driven approaches used to model time-varying networks…

We consider a new class of non Markovian processes with a countable number of interacting components. At each time unit, each component can take two values, indicating if it has a spike or not at this precise moment. The system evolves as…

Discrete time random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov systems are uniform continuous and contractive are considered. A notion of a…

We consider a piecewise deterministic Markov decision process, where the expected exponential utility of total (nonnegative) cost is to be minimized. The cost rate, transition rate and post-jump distributions are under control. The state…

In piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) the state of a finite-dimensional system evolves continuously, but the evolutive equation may change randomly as a result of discrete switches. A running cost is integrated along the…

We study the existence of densities for distributions of piecewise deterministic Markov processes. We also obtain relationships between invariant densities of the continuous time process and that of the process observed at jump times. In…

We consider in this paper a stochastic process that mixes in time, according to a nonobserved stationary Markov selection process, two separate sources of randomness: i) a stationary process which distribution is accessible (gold standard);…

We study stability issue of reset and impulsive switched systems. We find time constraints (dwell time and flee time) on switching signals which stabilize a given reset switched system. For a given collection of matrices, we find an…

This paper presents a stochastic model motivated by the study of a virus-like evolving population with different mutation rates. This is a continuous time birth-death model: the birth processes are mutually-exciting Hawkes processes and the…

This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm…

We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this…

In this paper we consider the problem of computing the stationary distribution of nearly completely decomposable Markov processes, a well-established area in the classical theory of Markov processes with broad applications in the design,…

In this work, we consider a finite-state inhomogeneous-time Markov chain whose probabilities of transition from one state to another tend to decrease over time. This can be seen as a cooling of the dynamics of an underlying Markov chain. We…