Related papers: Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models

Landfall of a tropical cyclone is the event when it moves over the land after crossing the coast of the ocean. It is important to know the characteristics of the landfall in terms of location and time, well advance in time to take…

The problem of forecasting weather has been scientifically studied for centuries due to its high impact on human lives, transportation, food production and energy management, among others. Current operational forecasting models are based on…

Earthquakes, as natural phenomena, have continuously caused damage and loss of human life historically. Earthquake prediction is an essential aspect of any society's plans and can increase public preparedness and reduce damage to a great…

Reliable earthquake detection and seismic phase classification is often challenging especially in the circumstances of low magnitude events or poor signal-to-noise ratio. With improved seismometers and better global coverage, a sharp…

Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum.…

Earthquakes are measured using well defined seismic parameters such as seismic moment (Mo), moment magnitude (Mw), and released elastic energy(E). How this tremendous amount of energy is accumulated silently deep inside the earth's crust?…

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems can effectively reduce fatalities, injuries, and damages caused by earthquakes. Current EEW systems are mostly based on traditional seismic and geodetic networks, and exist only in a few countries due…

Contrary to common belief, as the time since the last earthquake in a certain region increases, the risk of occurrence of another earthquake diminishes. As a consequence, the expected waiting time to the next event increases with the…

Motivated by applications in movement ecology, in this paper I propose a new class of integrated continuous-time hidden Markov models in which each observation depends on the underlying state of the process over the whole interval since the…

The MyShake project aims to build a global smartphone seismic network to facilitate large-scale earthquake early warning and other applications by leveraging the power of crowdsourcing. The MyShake mobile application first detects…

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

In this paper we show that the simple analysis of the local geomagnetic field behaviour can serve as reliable imminent precursor for regional seismic activity increasing. As the first step the problem was investigated using one- component…

This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis…

Time series models often deal with extreme events and anomalies, both prevalent in real-world datasets. Such models often need to provide careful probabilistic forecasting, which is vital in risk management for extreme events such as…

Delay-coordinate embedding is a powerful, time-tested mathematical framework for reconstructing the dynamics of a system from a series of scalar observations. Most of the associated theory and heuristics are overly stringent for real-world…

When a fault occurs in a process, it slowly propagates within the system and affects the measurements triggering a sequence of alarms in the control room. The operators are required to diagnose the cause of alarms and take necessary…

We consider two-state Non-Homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHHMMs) for forecasting univariate time series. Given a set of predictors, the time series are modeled via predictive regressions with state dependent coefficients and time-varying…

The ground motion prediction equation is commonly used to predict the seismic intensity distribution. However, it is not easy to apply this method to seismic distributions affected by underground plate structures, which are commonly known…

As a tool for capturing irregular temporal dependencies (rather than resorting to binning temporal observations to construct time series), Hawkes processes with exponential decay have seen widespread adoption across many application…

This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Ni\~no events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic…