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Related papers: Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models

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Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-06-21 John B. Rundle , Geoffrey Fox , Andrea Donnellan , Lisa Grant Ludwig

Previous papers have outlined nowcasting methods to track the current state of earthquake hazard using only observed seismic catalogs. The basis for one of these methods, the "counting method", is the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-10-20 John B Rundle , Ian Baughman , Andrea Donnellan , Lisa Grant , Geoffrey Fox

Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-15 Max Anderson Loake , Hamish Patten , David Steinsaltz

Since the beginning of this century, the significant advancements in artificial intelligence and neural networks have offered the potential to bring new transformations to short-term earthquake prediction research. However, currently, there…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-07-23 Zhiyu Xu , Qingliang Chen

The detection of earthquakes is a fundamental prerequisite for seismology and contributes to various research areas, such as forecasting earthquakes and understanding the crust/mantle structure. Recent advances in machine learning…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-07-14 Tomoki Tokuda , Hiromichi Nagao

Seismic waveforms contain rich information about earthquake processes, making effective data analysis crucial for earthquake monitoring, source characterization, and seismic hazard assessment. With rapid developments in deep learning, the…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-06-10 Weiqiang Zhu , Junhao Song , Haoyu Wang , Jannes Münchmeyer

Testing earthquake forecasts is essential to obtain scientific information on forecasting models and sufficient credibility for societal usage. We aim at enhancing the testing phase proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-03 Jonas R. Brehmer , Kristof Kraus , Tilmann Gneiting , Marcus Herrmann , Warner Marzocchi

Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-04-29 Neri Berman , Oleg Zlydenko , Oren Gilon , Yossi Matias , Yohai Bar-Sinai

Using error diagrams, we quantify the forecasting of characteristic-earthquake occurrence in a recently introduced minimalist model. Initially we connect the earthquake alarm at a fixed time after the ocurrence of a characteristic event.…

As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-09-02 A. V. Guglielmi , O. D. Zotov

Recent large-magnitude earthquakes have demonstrated the damaging consequences of soil liquefaction and reinforced the need to understand and plan for liquefaction hazards at a regional scale. In the United States, the Pacific Northwest is…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-03-20 Morgan D. Sanger , Brett W. Maurer

The Earthquake Network research project implements a crowdsourced earthquake early warning system based on smartphones. Smartphones, which are made available by the global population, exploit the Internet connection to report a signal to a…

Applications · Statistics 2016-06-29 F. Finazzi , A. Fassò

Earthquakes are major hazards to humans, buildings and infrastructure. Early warning methods aim to provide advance notice of incoming strong shaking to enable preventive action and mitigate seismic risk. Their usefulness depends on…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-01-12 Jannes Münchmeyer , Dino Bindi , Ulf Leser , Frederik Tilmann

Ground motion prediction (GMP) models are critical for hazard reduction before, during and after destructive earthquakes. In these three stages, intensity forecasting, early warning and interpolation models are corresponding employed to…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-12-03 Yitian Feng , Weiqiang Zhu , Xinzheng Lu

Estimates of seismic wave speeds in the Earth (seismic velocity models) are key input parameters to earthquake simulations for ground motion prediction. Owing to the non-uniqueness of the seismic inverse problem, typically many velocity…

We present an axiomatic approach to earthquake forecasting in terms of multi-component random fields on a lattice. This approach provides a method for constructing point estimates and confidence intervals for conditional probabilities of…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-10-29 V. Gertsik , M. Kelbert , A. Krichevets

Smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems implemented by citizen science initiatives are characterized by a significant variability in their smartphone network geometry. This has an direct impact on the earthquake detection…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-03 Francesco Finazzi , Frank Yannick Massoda Tchoussi

This paper focuses on the problem of anticipating the local occurrence of future large earthquakes. "Local" is defined as the probability of a large earthquake occurring with a defined circle of arbitrary radius surrounding a point of…

Precise real time estimates of earthquake magnitude and location are essential for early warning and rapid response. While recently multiple deep learning approaches for fast assessment of earthquakes have been proposed, they usually rely…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-04-15 Jannes Münchmeyer , Dino Bindi , Ulf Leser , Frederik Tilmann

The paper describes a theoretical model of the generation of electromagnetic emissions detected prior to the earthquake, a scheme of the earthquake prediction methodology, the possible methods, which are capable of simultaneous…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-04-26 Manana Kachakhidze , Nino Kachakhidze-Murphy