Related papers: Large deviations of the realized (co-)volatility v…
We develop and justify methodology to consistently test for long-horizon return predictability based on realized variance. To accomplish this, we propose a parametric transaction-level model for the continuous-time log price process based…
We develop an asymptotic theory for the jump robust measurement of covariations in the context of stochastic evolution equation in infinite dimensions. Namely, we identify scaling limits for realized covariations of solution processes with…
We investigate the computational issues related to the memory size in the estimation of quadratic covariation, taking into account the specifics of financial ultra-high-frequency data. In multivariate price processes, we consider both…
This article studies nonparametric methods to estimate the co-integrated volatility for multi-dimensional L\'evy processes with high frequency data. We construct a spectral estimator for the co-integrated volatility and prove minimax rates…
Volatility forecasts play a central role among equity risk measures. Besides traditional statistical models, modern forecasting techniques based on machine learning can be employed when treating volatility as a univariate, daily…
Using a large dataset on major FX rates, we test the robustness of the rough fractional volatility model over different time scales, by including smoothing and measurement errors into the analysis. Our findings lead to new stylized facts in…
In this paper we present the asymptotic analysis of the realised quadratic variation for multivariate symmetric $\beta$-stable L\'evy processes, $\beta \in (0,2)$, and certain pure jump semimartingales. The main focus is on derivation of…
In this article we focus on estimating the quadratic covariation of continuous semimartingales from discrete observations that take place at asynchronous observation times. The Hayashi-Yoshida estimator serves as synchronized realized…
We provide a collection of results on covariance expressions between Monte Carlo based multi-output mean, variance, and Sobol main effect variance estimators from an ensemble of models. These covariances can be used within multi-fidelity…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of modified weighted power variations of the Hermite process of arbitrary order. By selecting suitable "good" increments and exploiting their decomposition into dominant independent components, we establish…
For a semi-martingale $X_t$, which forms a stochastic boundary, a rate-optimal estimator for its quadratic variation $\langle X, X \rangle_t$ is constructed based on observations in the vicinity of $X_t$. The problem is embedded in a…
We consider a structural stochastic volatility model for the loss from a large portfolio of credit risky assets. Both the asset value and the volatility processes are correlated through systemic Brownian motions, with default determined by…
We propose a hybrid estimation procedure to estimate global fixed parameters and subject-specific random effects in a mixed fractional Black-Scholes model based on discrete-time observations. Specifically, we consider $N$ independent…
Maximum-type statistics of certain functions of the sample covariance matrix of high-dimensional vector time series are studied to statistically confirm or reject the null hypothesis that a data set has been collected under normal…
We investigate methods for forecasting multivariate realized covariances matrices applied to a set of 30 assets that were included in the DJ30 index at some point, including two novel methods that use existing (univariate) log of realized…
We introduce a statistical test for simultaneous jumps in the price of a financial asset and its volatility process. The proposed test is based on high-frequency data and is robust to market microstructure frictions. For the test, local…
We provide a short-time large deviation principle (LDP) for stochastic volatility models, where the volatility is expressed as a function of a Volterra process. This LDP does not require strict self-similarity assumptions on the Volterra…
We consider the parametric estimation of the volatility and jump activity in a stable Cox-Ingersoll-Ross ($\alpha$-stable CIR) model driven by a standard Brownian Motion and a non-symmetric stable L\'evy process with jump activity $\alpha…
This article studies the finite sample behaviour of a number of estimators for the integrated power volatility process of a Brownian semistationary process in the non semi-martingale setting. We establish three consistent feasible…
Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…