Related papers: Filtering hidden Markov measures
We extend classic characterisations of posterior distributions under Dirichlet process and gamma random measures priors to a dynamic framework. We consider the problem of learning, from indirect observations, two families of time-dependent…
We study the distribution of the unobserved states of two measure-valued diffusions of Fleming-Viot and Dawson-Watanabe type, conditional on observations from the underlying populations collected at past, present and future times. If seen…
We consider the task of filtering a dynamic parameter evolving as a diffusion process, given data collected at discrete times from a likelihood which is conjugate to the marginal law of the diffusion, when a generic dual process on a…
The Gamma-Dirichlet structure corresponds to the decomposition of the gamma process into the independent product of a gamma random variable and a Dirichlet process. This structure allows us to study the properties of the Dirichlet process…
We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…
Coupled Wright-Fisher diffusions have been recently introduced to model the temporal evolution of finitely-many allele frequencies at several loci. These are vectors of multidimensional diffusions whose dynamics are weakly coupled among…
Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state…
We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…
A discrete-time stochastic process derived from a model of basketball is used to generalize any discrete distribution. The generalized distributions can have one or two more parameters than the parent distribution. Those derived from…
We consider predictive inference using a class of temporally dependent Dirichlet processes driven by Fleming--Viot diffusions, which have a natural bearing in Bayesian nonparametrics and lend the resulting family of random probability…
We link optimal filtering for hidden Markov models to the notion of duality for Markov processes. We show that when the signal is dual to a process that has two components, one deterministic and one a pure death process, and with respect to…
We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead,…
The smoothing distribution is the conditional distribution of the diffusion process in the space of trajectories given noisy observations made continuously in time. It is generally difficult to sample from this distribution. We use the…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…
We revisit the work of Mitter and Newton on an information-theoretic interpretation of Bayes' formula through the Gibbs variational principle. This formulation allowed them to pose nonlinear estimation for diffusion processes as a problem…
Suppose X is a multivariate diffusion process that is observed discretely in time. At each observation time, a transformation of the state of the process is observed with noise. The smoothing problem consists of recovering the path of the…
Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…
The Wright-Fisher diffusion is a fundamentally important model of evolution encompassing genetic drift, mutation, and natural selection. Suppose you want to infer the parameters associated with these processes from an observed sample path.…
Exact inference for hidden Markov models requires the evaluation of all distributions of interest - filtering, prediction, smoothing and likelihood - with a finite computational effort. This article provides sufficient conditions for exact…