Related papers: Extracting the Italian output gap: a Bayesian appr…
Identifying macroeconomic events that are responsible for dramatic changes of economy is of particular relevance to understand the overall economic dynamics. We introduce an open-source available efficient Python implementation of a…
Economists often rely on estimates of linear fixed effects models produced by other teams of researchers. Assessing the uncertainty in these estimates can be challenging. I propose a form of sample splitting for networks that partitions the…
Gaussian processes are the gold standard for many real-world modeling problems, especially in cases where a model's success hinges upon its ability to faithfully represent predictive uncertainty. These problems typically exist as parts of…
This paper shows how data science can contribute to improving empirical research in economics by leveraging on large datasets and extracting information otherwise unsuitable for a traditional econometric approach. As a test-bed for our…
In real-world scenarios like traffic and energy, massive time-series data with missing values and noises are widely observed, even sampled irregularly. While many imputation methods have been proposed, most of them work with a local…
Using an analog of the boundary element method in engineering and science, we analyze and model unemployment rate in Austria, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States as a function of inflation and the change in…
Assessing the resilience of the economy requires accounting for its intrinsic multi-layer nature, by assessing for instance how disruptions at the firm level spread through the production network and propagate to the banking sector. Methods…
In an era of rapid change, timely and disaggregated economic insights are crucial for effective policymaking. This study explores the potential of real-time payment data to complement traditional economic measurement. Using anonmysed UK…
This paper develops a novel method to estimate firm-specific market-entry thresholds in international economics, allowing fixed costs to vary across firms alongside productivity. Our framework models market entry as an interaction between…
This paper promotes the application of a path-independent decomposition scheme. Besides presenting some theoretical arguments supporting this decomposition scheme, this study also illustrates the difference between the path-independent…
Tax evasion is the illegal evasion of taxes by individuals, corporations, and trusts. The revenue loss from tax avoidance can undermine the effectiveness and equity of the government policies. A standard measure of tax evasion is the tax…
The evolution of the rate of price inflation and unemployment in Japan has been modeled within the Phillips curve framework. As an extension to the Phillips curve, we represent both variables as linear functions of the change rate of labor…
We study the volatility of the MIB30-stock-index high-frequency data from November 28, 1994 through September 15, 1995. Our aim is to empirically characterize the volatility random walk in the framework of continuous-time finance. To this…
Stylized facts can be regarded as constraints for any modeling attempt of price dynamics on a financial market, in that an empirically reasonable model has to reproduce these stylized facts at least qualitatively. The dynamics of market…
We propose a model for the description and the forecast of the gross prices of electricity in the liberalized Italian energy market via an additive two-factor model driven by both a Hawkes and a fractional Brownian processes. We discuss the…
Extrinsic Information Transfer (EXIT) functions can be measured by statistical methods if the message alphabet size is moderate or if messages are true a-posteriori distributions. We propose an approximation we call mixed information that…
We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…
This research aims to provide an explanatory analyses of the business cycles divergence between Euro Area and Romania, respectively its drivers, since the synchronisation of output-gaps is one of the most important topic in the context of a…
The study presents a time-series analysis of field-standardized average impact of Italian research compared to the world average. The approach is purely bibliometric, based on census of the full scientific production from all Italian public…
One of the key challenges in revenue management is unconstraining demand data. Existing state of the art single-class unconstraining methods make restrictive assumptions about the form of the underlying demand and can perform poorly when…