Related papers: Dynamic Defaultable Term Structure Modelling beyon…
In this paper we give a financial justification, based on non arbitrage conditions, of the $(H)$ hypothesis in default time modelling. We also show how the $(H)$ hypothesis is affected by an equivalent change of probability measure. The…
In credit risk literature, the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is stipulated as one of the main assumptions in the hazard process model. Here we show by construction the existence of a measure that turns the discounted stock…
We extend the now classic structural credit modeling approach of Black and Cox to a class of "two-factor" models that unify equity securities such as options written on the stock price, and credit products like bonds and credit default…
We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors.…
We propose a model for the credit markets in which the random default times of bonds are assumed to be given as functions of one or more independent "market factors". Market participants are assumed to have partial information about each of…
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between…
We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string…
In this paper, we study a continuous time structural asset value model for two correlated firms using a two-dimensional Brownian motion. We consider the situation of incomplete information, where the information set available to the market…
This paper extends the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor introduced and studied by Alvarez and Jermann (2005) in discretetime ergodic environments and by Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) and Hansen (2012) in Markovian…
This paper develops a structural credit risk model to characterize the difference between the economic and recorded default times for a firm. Recorded default occurs when default is recorded in the legal system. The economic default time is…
The structural default model of Lipton and Sepp, 2009 is generalized for a set of banks with mutual interbank liabilities whose assets are driven by correlated Levy processes with idiosyncratic and common components. The multi-dimensional…
This paper introduces a short rate model in continuous time that adds one or more memory (delay) components to the Merton model (Merton 1970, 1973) or the Vasi\v{c}ek model (Vasi\v{c}ek 1977) for the short rate. The distribution of the…
This article constructs a forward exponential utility in a market with multiple defaultable risks. Using the Jacod-Pham decomposition for random fields, we first characterize forward performance processes in a defaultable market under the…
A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…
We present a general model for default time, making precise the role of the intensity process, and showing that this process allows for a knowledge of the conditional distribution of the default only "before the default". This lack of…
Risk management is an important practice in the banking industry. In this paper we develop a new methodology to estimate and predict the probability of default (PD) based on the rating transition matrices, which relates the rating…
Evaluation of default correlation is an important task in credit risk analysis. In many practical situations, it concerns the joint defaults of several correlated firms, the task that is reducible to a first passage time (FPT) problem. This…
We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment…
An efficient method to price bonds with optional sinking feature is presented. Such instruments equip their issuer with the option (but not the obligation) to redeem parts of the notional prior to maturity, therefore the future cash flows…
We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm's ability to avoid default even if company's liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a…