Related papers: Methodological thoughts on expected loss estimates…
The dependency structure of credit risk parameters is a key driver for capital consumption and receives regulatory and scientific attention. The impact of parameter imperfections on the quality of expected loss (EL) in the sense of a fair,…
Under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9, credit losses ought to be recognised timeously and accurately. This requirement belies a certain degree of dynamicity when estimating the constituent parts of a credit loss…
The IFRS 9 accounting standard requires the prediction of credit deterioration in financial instruments, i.e., significant increases in credit risk (SICR). However, the definition of such a SICR-event is inherently ambiguous, given its…
For credit risk management purposes in general, and for allocation of regulatory capital by banks in particular (Basel II), numerical assessments of the credit-worthiness of borrowers are indispensable. These assessments are expressed in…
The estimation of marginal loan write-off probabilities is a non-trivial task when modelling the loss given default (LGD) risk parameter in credit risk. We explore two types of survival models in estimating the overall write-off probability…
A new methodology for incorporating LGD correlation effects into the Basel II risk weight functions is introduced. This methodology is based on modelling of LGD and default event with a single loss variable. The resulting formulas for…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…
In the framework of Embedded Value new standards, namely the MCEV norms, the latest principles published in June 2008 address the issue of market and underwriting risks measurement by using stochastic models of projection and valorization.…
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is…
Conditional forecasts of risk measures play an important role in internal risk management of financial institutions as well as in regulatory capital calculations. In order to assess forecasting performance of a risk measurement procedure,…
Loss Given Default (LGD) is a key risk parameter in determining a bank's regulatory capital. During LGD-estimation, realised recovery cash flows are to be discounted at an appropriate rate. Regulatory guidance mandates that this rate should…
Overconservatism has long been recognized as a major issue with robust optimization, despite its key advantages of tractability, performance guarantee, and limited information. To address this issue, a new criterion is proposed that can…
We tackle the problem of estimating risk measures of the infinite-horizon discounted cost within a Markov cost process. The risk measures we study include variance, Value-at-Risk (VaR), and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). First, we show…
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk plays an important role in protecting the Australian banking sector against insolvency. We outline the mathematical foundations of regulatory capital for…
A new procedure is presented for the objective comparison and evaluation of default definitions. This allows the lender to find a default threshold at which the financial loss of a loan portfolio is minimised, in accordance with Basel II.…
This paper introduces a unified micro-level stochastic framework for the joint modeling of loss reserves (RBNS), incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves, and unearned premium risk under dependence, inflation, and discounting. The proposed…
We address the problem of estimating the expected shortfall risk of a financial loss using a finite number of i.i.d. data. It is well known that the classical plug-in estimator suffers from poor statistical performance when faced with…
Measuring the contribution of a bank or an insurance company to overall systemic risk is a key concern, particularly in the aftermath of the 2007--2009 financial crisis and the 2020 downturn. In this paper, we derive worst-case and…
An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive…
This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…