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Reliable uncertainty quantification is critical for trustworthy AI. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees, but its two main variants face complementary limitations. Split CP (SCP)…
Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…
We propose an evaluation framework for class probability estimates (CPEs) in the presence of label uncertainty, which is commonly observed as diagnosis disagreement between experts in the medical domain. We also formalize evaluation metrics…
Intermittent demand forecasting is a ubiquitous and challenging problem in production systems and supply chain management. In recent years, there has been a growing focus on developing forecasting approaches for intermittent demand from…
Defect prediction is crucial for software quality assurance and has been extensively researched over recent decades. However, prior studies rarely focus on data complexity in defect prediction tasks, and even less on understanding the…
Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical framework for high-stakes classification applications. Instead of predicting a single class, CP generates a prediction set, guaranteed to include the true label with a…
Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…
Software defect prediction models can assist software testing initiatives by prioritizing testing error-prone modules. In recent years, in addition to the traditional defect prediction model approach of predicting defects from class,…
Context: There is considerable diversity in the range and design of computational experiments to assess classifiers for software defect prediction. This is particularly so, regarding the choice of classifier performance metrics.…
In this paper, we present a novel approach for conformal prediction (CP), in which we aim to identify a set of promising prediction candidates -- in place of a single prediction. This set is guaranteed to contain a correct answer with high…
Researchers in empirical software engineering often make claims based on observable data such as defect reports. Unfortunately, in many cases, these claims are generalized beyond the data sets that have been evaluated. Will the researcher's…
We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…
Over the last years, machine learning techniques have been applied to more and more application domains, including software engineering and, especially, software quality assurance. Important application domains have been, e.g., software…
Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…
As the primary cause of software defects, human error is the key to understanding, and perhaps to predicting and avoiding them. Little research has been done to predict defects on the basis of the cognitive errors that cause them. This…
While 3D instance segmentation (3DIS) has advanced significantly, most existing methods assume that all object classes are known in advance and uniformly distributed. However, this assumption is unrealistic in dynamic, real-world…
Accurate Defect detection is crucial for ensuring the trustworthiness of intelligent railway systems. Current approaches rely on single deep-learning models, like CNNs, which employ a large amount of data to capture underlying patterns.…
While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…
This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…
Several studies point out different causes of performance degradation in supervised machine learning. Problems such as class imbalance, overlapping, small-disjuncts, noisy labels, and sparseness limit accuracy in classification algorithms.…