Related papers: A Hierarchical Model for Estimating HIV Epidemics

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…

A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…

The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…

In low- and middle-income countries, household surveys are the most reliable data source to examine health and demographic indicators at the subnational level, an exercise in small area estimation. Model-based unit-level models are favored…

HIV transmission within serodiscordant couples remains a significant public health challenge, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimating the rate of such infection, alongside the rates of introduction of infection from outside the…

Accurate HIV incidence estimation based on individual recent infection status (recent vs long-term infection) is important for monitoring the epidemic, targeting interventions to those at greatest risk of new infection, and evaluating…

Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…

HIV dynamical models are often based on non-linear systems of ordinary differential equations (ODE), which do not have analytical solution. Introducing random effects in such models leads to very challenging non-linear mixed-effects models.…

Poverty maps are used to aid important political decisions such as allocation of development funds by governments and international organizations. Those decisions should be based on the most accurate poverty figures. However, often reliable…

It is the main purpose of this paper to introduce a graph-valued stochastic process in order to model the spread of a communicable infectious disease. The major novelty of the SIR model we promote lies in the fact that the social network on…

Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…

Network models are increasingly used to study infectious disease spread. Exponential Random Graph models have a history in this area, with scalable inference methods now available. An alternative approach uses mechanistic network models.…

Improving health in the most disadvantaged populations requires reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators to inform policy and interventions. Low- and middle-income countries with the largest burden of disease and disability…

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence…

A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…

Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…

A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…

The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…

Naomi is a spatial evidence synthesis model used to produce district-level HIV epidemic indicators in sub-Saharan Africa. Multiple outcomes of policy interest, including HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, and antiretroviral therapy treatment…

We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS…