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Related papers: Qualitative Robustness in Bayesian Inference

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Robust Bayesian models are appealing alternatives to standard models, providing protection from data that contains outliers or other departures from the model assumptions. Historically, robust models were mostly developed on a case-by-case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-08 Chong Wang , David M. Blei

Popular deterministic approximations of posterior distributions from, e.g. the Laplace method, variational Bayes and expectation-propagation, generally rely on symmetric approximating families, often taken to be Gaussian. This choice…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-19 Francesco Pozza , Daniele Durante , Botond Szabo

Piecewise constant priors are routinely used in the Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model for survival analysis. Despite its popularity, large sample properties of this Bayesian method are not yet well understood. This work provides a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-16 Bo Y. -C. Ning , Ismaël Castillo

Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-12-08 Samuel Bronstein , Stefan Engblom , Robin Marin

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems provides a rigorous framework for the incorporation and quantification of uncertainties in measurements, parameters and models. We are interested in designing numerical methods which are robust…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-06-29 Claudia Schillings , Björn Sprungk , Philipp Wacker

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-11-27 Truong-Vinh Hoang , Hermann G. Matthies

We consider the Bayesian analysis of a few complex, high-dimensional models and show that intuitive priors, which are not tailored to the fine details of the model and the estimated parameters, produce estimators which perform poorly in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-02-02 Y. Ritov , P. J. Bickel , A. C. Gamst , B. J. K. Kleijn

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-03-26 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marcus Hutter

Predicting extreme events is important in many applications in risk analysis. The extreme-value theory suggests modelling extremes by max-stable distributions. The Bayesian approach provides a natural framework for statistical prediction.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-22 Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a…

Performing exact inference on Bayesian networks is known to be #P-hard. Typically approximate inference techniques are used instead to sample from the distribution on query variables given the values $e$ of evidence variables. Classically,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-10-02 Guang Hao Low , Theodore J. Yoder , Isaac L. Chuang

Gaussian Process Regression is a popular nonparametric regression method based on Bayesian principles that provides uncertainty estimates for its predictions. However, these estimates are of a Bayesian nature, whereas for some important…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-09 Christian Fiedler , Carsten W. Scherer , Sebastian Trimpe

We consider the problem of statistical inference on parameters of a target population when auxiliary observations are available from related populations. We propose a flexible empirical Bayes approach that can be applied on top of any…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-12-15 Michael Law , Peter Bühlmann , Ya'acov Ritov

Bayesian inference is often implemented using approximations, which can yield interval estimates that are too narrow, not fully capturing the uncertainty in the posterior distribution. We address the question of how to adjust these…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Tiffany Cai , Philip Greengard , Ben Goodrich , Andrew Gelman

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-27 Jasper Marijn Everink , Yiqiu Dong , Martin Skovgaard Andersen

Measurement error occurs when a covariate influencing a response variable is corrupted by noise. This can lead to misleading inference outcomes, particularly in problems where accurately estimating the relationship between covariates and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Charita Dellaporta , Theodoros Damoulas

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-01 Christiane Goergen , Manuele Leonelli

Current literature on posterior approximation for Bayesian inference offers many alternative methods. Does our chosen approximation scheme work well on the observed data? The best existing generic diagnostic tools treating this kind of…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-22 Hanwen Xing , Geoff K. Nicholls , Jeong Eun Lee