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In over-identified models, misspecification -- the norm rather than exception -- fundamentally changes what estimators estimate. Different estimators imply different estimands rather than different efficiency for the same target. A review…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-23 Isaiah Andrews , Jiafeng Chen , Otavio Tecchio

Evaluating automatic speech recognition (ASR) systems is a classical but difficult and still open problem, which often boils down to focusing only on the word error rate (WER). However, this metric suffers from many limitations and does not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-01 Thibault Bañeras-Roux , Mickaël Rouvier , Jane Wottawa , Richard Dufour

When multiple models are considered in regression problems, the model averaging method can be used to weigh and integrate the models. In the present study, we examined how the goodness-of-prediction of the estimator depends on the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-21 Ryo Ando , Fumiyasu Komaki

Prediction performance does not always reflect the estimation behaviour of a method. High error in estimation may necessarily not result in high prediction error, but can lead to an unreliable prediction if test data lie in a slightly…

Applications · Statistics 2020-09-22 Raju Rimal , Trygve Almøy , Solve Sæbø

Due to its strong interpretability, linear regression is widely used in social science, from which significance test provides the significance level of models or coefficients in the traditional statistical inference. However, linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-08 Jiaye Teng , Yang Yuan

We study a regression problem where for some part of the data we observe both the label variable ($Y$) and the predictors (${\bf X}$), while for other part of the data only the predictors are given. Such a problem arises, for example, when…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-14 David Azriel , Lawrence D. Brown , Michael Sklar , Richard Berk , Andreas Buja , Linda Zhao

In this article, we study the statistical and asymptotic properties of break-point estimators in nonstationary autoregressive and predictive regression models for testing the presence of a single structural break at an unknown location in…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-29 Christis Katsouris

We study asymptotic behavior of one-step $M$-estimators based on samples from arrays of not necessarily identically distributed random variables and representing explicit approximations to the corresponding consistent $M$-estimators. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-12 Yu. Yu. Linke

The issue of spatial confounding between the spatial random effect and the fixed effects in regression analyses has been identified as a concern in the statistical literature. Multiple authors have offered perspectives and potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-18 Kori Khan , Catherine A. Calder

The Bayesian Land Surface Temperature estimator previously developed has been extended to include the effects of imperfectly known gain and offset calibration errors. It is possible to treat both gain and offset as nuisance parameters and,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-11 J. A. Morgan

The zero-shot capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) has enabled highly flexible, reference-free metrics for various tasks, making LLM evaluators common tools in NLP. However, the robustness of these LLM evaluators remains relatively…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-06 Rickard Stureborg , Dimitris Alikaniotis , Yoshi Suhara

In this note I study how the precision of a classifier depends on the ratio $r$ of positive to negative cases in the test set, as well as the classifier's true and false positive rates. This relationship allows prediction of how the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-28 Christopher K I Williams

This paper investigates the large sample properties of local regression distribution estimators, which include a class of boundary adaptive density estimators as a prime example. First, we establish a pointwise Gaussian large sample…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Matias D. Cattaneo , Michael Jansson , Xinwei Ma

A generic out-of-sample error estimate is proposed for robust $M$-estimators regularized with a convex penalty in high-dimensional linear regression where $(X,y)$ is observed and $p,n$ are of the same order. If $\psi$ is the derivative of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Pierre C Bellec

In a classical regression model, it is usually assumed that the explanatory variables are independent of each other and error terms are normally distributed. But when these assumptions are not met, situations like the error terms are not…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-08 Bahadır Yüzbaşı , Yasin Asar , Ahmet Demiralp , M. Şamil Şık

This paper studies local asymptotic relationship between two scalar estimates. We define sensitivity of a target estimate to a control estimate to be the directional derivative of the target functional with respect to the gradient direction…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-05-24 Yaroslav Mukhin

We study estimation and prediction in linear models where the response and the regressor variable both take values in some Hilbert space. Our main objective is to obtain consistency of a principal components based estimator for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-17 Siegfried Hörmann , Łukasz Kidziński

In high-dimensional statistical inference in which the number of parameters to be estimated is larger than that of the holding data, regularized linear estimation techniques are widely used. These techniques have, however, some drawbacks.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-06 Takashi Takahashi , Yoshiyuki Kabashima

We find that, in a linear model, the James-Stein estimator, which dominates the maximum-likelihood estimator in terms of its in-sample prediction error, can perform poorly compared to the maximum-likelihood estimator in out-of-sample…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-02 Nina Huber , Hannes Leeb

When we are interested in high-dimensional system and focus on classification performance, the $\ell_{1}$-penalized logistic regression is becoming important and popular. However, the Lasso estimates could be problematic when penalties of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-12 Huamei Huang , Yujing Gao , Huiming Zhang , Bo Li
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