Related papers: Long-range epidemic spreading in a random environm…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…
In long-range percolation on $\mathbb{Z}^d$, points $x$ and $y$ are connected by an edge with probability $1-\exp(-\beta\|x-y\|^{-d-\alpha})$, where $\alpha>0$ is fixed and $\beta \geq 0$ is a parameter. As $d$ and $\alpha$ vary, the model…
Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Current understanding of the critical outbreak condition on temporal networks relies on approximations (time scale separation, discretization) that may bias the results. We propose a theoretical framework to compute the epidemic threshold…
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
A theory of the spread of epidemics is formulated on the basis of pairwise interactions in a dilute system of random walkers (infected and susceptible animals) moving in n dimensions. The motion of an animal pair is taken to obey a…
In real world, there is a significant relation between human behaviors and epidemic spread. Especially, the reactions among individuals in different communities to epidemics may be different, which lead to cluster synchronization of human…
The surprisingly mercurial Covid-19 pandemic has highlighted the need to not only accelerate research on infectious disease, but to also study them using novel techniques and perspectives. A major contributor to the difficulty of containing…
In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…
We study the local persistence probability during non-stationary time evolutions in disordered contact processes with long-range interactions by a combination of the strong-disorder renormalization group (SDRG) method, a phenomenological…
It is well established that the phase transition between survival and extinction in spreading models with short-range interactions is generically associated with the directed percolation (DP) universality class. In many realistic spreading…
We propose a novel multi-scale modeling framework for infectious disease spreading, borrowing ideas and modeling tools from the so-called Refractory Density (RD) approach. We introduce a microscopic model that describes the probability of…
The nearest level spacing distribution $P_c(s)$ of $d$-dimensional disordered models ($d=1$ and 2) with long-range random hopping amplitudes is investigated numerically at criticality. We focus on both the weak ($b^d \gg 1$) and the strong…
In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time,…
Individuals involved in common group activities/settings -- e.g., college students that are enrolled in the same class and/or live in the same dorm -- are exposed to recurrent contacts of physical proximity. These contacts are known to…
Since the beginning of the epidemic, daily reports of CoViD-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from around the world have been publicly available. This paper describes methods to characterize broad features of the spread of the disease,…
Accurate identification of effective epidemic threshold is essential for understanding epidemic dynamics on complex networks. The existing studies on the effective epidemic threshold of the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model generally…
This paper is focused on SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) epidemic dynamics (also known as the contact process) on populations modelled by homogeneous Poisson point processes of the Euclidean plane, where the infection rate of a…