Related papers: Long Term Risk: A Martingale Approach
We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…
An efficient method to price bonds with optional sinking feature is presented. Such instruments equip their issuer with the option (but not the obligation) to redeem parts of the notional prior to maturity, therefore the future cash flows…
We analyze the stability of general nonlinear discrete-time stochastic systems controlled by optimal inputs that minimize an infinite-horizon discounted cost. Under a novel stochastic formulation of cost-controllability and detectability…
We study the forward investment performance process (FIPP) in an incomplete semimartingale market model with closed and convex portfolio constraints, when the investor's risk preferences are of the power form. We provide necessary and…
Martingales constitute a basic tool in stochastic analysis; this paper considers their application to counting processes. We use this tool to revisit a renewal theorem and its extensions for various counting processes. We first consider a…
We introduce a new class of estimators for the linear response of steady states of stochastic dynamics. We generalize the likelihood ratio approach and formulate the linear response as a product of two martingales, hence the name…
In this paper we consider the three-dimensional compressible MHD system with stochastic external forces in a bounded domain. We obtain the existence of martingale solution which is a weak solution for the fluid variables, the Brownian…
Isotonic regression or monotone function estimation is a problem of estimating function values under monotonicity constraints, which appears naturally in many scientific fields. This paper proposes a new Bayesian method with global-local…
We consider a piecewise deterministic Markov decision process, where the expected exponential utility of total (nonnegative) cost is to be minimized. The cost rate, transition rate and post-jump distributions are under control. The state…
The expectation is an example of a descriptive statistic that is monotone with respect to stochastic dominance, and additive for sums of independent random variables. We provide a complete characterization of such statistics, and explore a…
Quantile is an important measure in finance and quality assessment in service industry. In this paper, we model the temporal and cross-sectional interactive effect of the quantiles of large-dimensional time series by a latent quantile…
To achieve robustness of risk across different assets, risk parity investing rules, a particular state of risk contributions, have grown in popularity over the previous few decades. To generalize the concept of risk contribution from the…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
This paper deals with the long run average continuous control problem of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) taking values in a general Borel space and with compact action space depending on the state variable. The control…
We propose a new approach to apply the chaining technique in conjunction with information-theoretic measures to bound the generalization error of machine learning algorithms. Different from the deterministic chaining approach based on…
The purpose of the present paper is to incorporate stochastic interest rates into a matrix-approach to multi-state life insurance, where formulas for reserves, moments of future payments and equivalence premiums can be obtained as explicit…
We consider a conditional factor model for a multivariate portfolio of United States equities in the context of analysing a statistical arbitrage trading strategy. A state space framework underlies the factor model whereby asset returns are…
This work explores the use of a forward-backward martingale method together with a decoupling argument and entropic estimates between the conditional and averaged measures to prove a strong averaging principle for stochastic differential…
The proposed model modifies option pricing formulas for the basic case of log-normal probability distribution providing correspondence to formulated criteria of efficiency and completeness. The model is self-calibrating by historic…
It is shown that under a certain condition on a semimartingale and a time-change, any stochastic integral driven by the time-changed semimartingale is a time-changed stochastic integral driven by the original semimartingale. As a direct…