Related papers: State model for partly undetected non-communicable…
Recently, we proposed an state model (compartment model) to describe the progression of a chronic disease with an pre-clinical (undiagnosed) state before clinical diagnosis. It is an open question, if a sequence of cross-sectional studies…
This paper generalizes a previously published differential equation that describes the relation between the age-specific incidence, remission, and mortality of a disease with its prevalence. The underlying model is a simple compartment…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
The illness-death model of a chronic disease consists of the states 'Normal', 'Disease' and 'Death'. In general, the transition rates between the states depend on three time scales: calendar time, age and duration of the chronic disease.…
Recently, we have shown that the age-specific prevalence of a disease can be related to the transition rates in the illness-death model via a partial differential equation (PDE). In case of a chronic disease, we show that the PDE can be…
Recently, we have proposed a new illness-death model that comprises a state of undiagnosed chronic disease preceding the diagnosed disease. Based on this model, the question arises how case-finding can be assessed in the presence of…
As populations age, the rise of multimorbidity poses a significant healthcare challenge. However, our ability to quantitatively forecast the progression of multimorbidity remains limited. Leveraging a nationwide dataset comprising…
Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Relevant events in a three state illness-death model (IDM) of a chronic disease are the diagnosis of the disease and death with or without the disease. In this article a simulation framework for populations moving in the IDM is presented.…
Recently, it has been shown that the transition rates of the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions are related to the percentages of people in the states by a three-dimensional system of differential equations [Bri24]. The aim of…
A model describing the dynamics related to the spreading of non-lethal infectious diseases in a fixed-size population is proposed. The model consists of a non-linear delay-differential equation describing the time evolution of the increment…
This article investigates stochastic epidemic models with partial information and addresses the estimation of current values of not directly observable states. The latter is also called nowcasting and related to the so-called "dark figure"…
As cancer patient survival improves, late effects from treatment are becoming the next clinical challenge. Chemotherapy and radiotherapy, for example, potentially increase the risk of both morbidity and mortality from second malignancies…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…
Non-communicable disease is the leading cause of death, emphasizing the need for accurate prediction of disease progression and informed clinical decision-making. Machine learning (ML) models have shown promise in this domain by capturing…
Background: A common modelling approach in public health and epidemiology divides the population under study into compartments containing persons that share the same status. Here we consider a three-state model with the compartments: A, B…
There is a growing proportion of people with several disease conditions ("multimorbidity"), placing increasing demands on healthcare systems. One hypothesis is that clusters of diseases may arise from shared underlying disease processes…
This work presents a model combining the simplest communicable and non-communicable disease models. The latter is, by far, the leading cause of sickness and death in the World, and introduces basal heterogeneity in populations where…
Mathematical models of epidemics often use compartmental models dividing the population into several compartments. Based on a microscopic setting describing the temporal evolution of the subpopulation sizes in the compartments by stochastic…