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Variational inference for state space models (SSMs) is known to be hard in general. Recent works focus on deriving variational objectives for SSMs from unbiased sequential Monte Carlo estimators. We reveal that the marginal particle filter…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-16 Jinlin Lai , Justin Domke , Daniel Sheldon

Sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle methods, are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. In many applications it may be necessary to compute the sensitivity,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-14 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

Multiresolution Matrix Factorization (MMF) was recently introduced as a method for finding multiscale structure and defining wavelets on graphs/matrices. In this paper we derive pMMF, a parallel algorithm for computing the MMF…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2015-07-17 Risi Kondor , Nedelina Teneva , Pramod K. Mudrakarta

We investigate the performance of a class of particle filters (PFs) that can automatically tune their computational complexity by evaluating online certain predictive statistics which are invariant for a broad class of state-space models.…

Computation · Statistics 2021-04-26 Víctor Elvira , Joaquín Míguez , Petar M. Djurić

Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-07 Bhaskara Marthi , Hanna Pasula , Stuart Russell , Yuval Peres

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-17 Peter Neal

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2016-12-30 Christian A. Naesseth , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a widely used set of computational tools for inference in non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. We propose a new SMC algorithm to compute the expectation of additive functionals recursively.…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-12-27 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Sumeetpal Singh

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

Inference-time methods that aggregate and prune multiple samples have emerged as a powerful paradigm for steering large language models, yet we lack any principled understanding of their accuracy-cost tradeoffs. In this paper, we introduce…

We develop a novel parallel resampling algorithm for fully parallelized particle filters, which is designed with GPUs (graphics processing units) or similar parallel computing devices in mind. With our new algorithm, a full cycle of…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-17 Kenichiro McAlinn , Teruo Nakatsuma

We study the first order phase transition of the fixed-connectivity triangulated surface model using the Parallel Tempering Monte Carlo (PTMC) technique on relatively large lattices. From the PTMC results, we find that the transition is…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-01-29 Satoshi Usui , Hiroshi Koibuchi

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-08-20 Yun Yang , David B. Dunson

Calibration of individual based models (IBMs), successful in modeling complex ecological dynamical systems, is often performed only ad-hoc. Bayesian inference can be used for both parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification, but its…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-09 Jonas Šukys , Mira Kattwinkel

Parallel parameterized complexity theory studies how fixed-parameter tractable (fpt) problems can be solved in parallel. Previous theoretical work focused on parallel algorithms that are very fast in principle, but did not take into account…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-02-21 Max Bannach , Malte Skambath , Till Tantau

In this paper we consider the filtering of a class of partially observed piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In particular, we assume that an ordinary differential equation (ODE) drives the deterministic element and can only…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-07 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Mohamed Maama

Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework,…

Computation · Statistics 2012-07-09 Mike Klaas , Nando de Freitas , Arnaud Doucet

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, or Particle Filters, are Bayesian filtering algorithms which propagate in time a discrete and random approximation of the a posteriori distribution of interest. Such algorithms are based on Importance…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-11 Roland Lamberti , Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries , François Septier

Over the years, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and, equivalently, particle filter (PF) theory has gained substantial attention from researchers. However, the performance of the resampling methodology, also known as offspring selection, has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-26 Oskar Kviman , Hazal Koptagel , Harald Melin , Jens Lagergren

SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) is a class of Monte Carlo algorithms for filtering and related sequential problems. Gerber and Chopin (2015) introduced SQMC (Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo), a QMC version of SMC. This paper has two objectives:…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-19 Nicolas Chopin , Mathieu Gerber