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In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

Computation · Statistics 2013-04-01 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Elena Ehrlich

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are commonly used for their versatility in sampling from complicated probability distributions. However, as the dimension of the distribution gets larger, the computational costs for a satisfactory…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-12-01 Hector J. Hortua , Riccardo Volpi , Dimitri Marinelli , Luigi Malago

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are foundational algorithms for Bayesian inference and probabilistic modeling. However, most MCMC algorithms are inherently sequential and their time complexity scales linearly with the sequence…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-03 David M. Zoltowski , Skyler Wu , Xavier Gonzalez , Leo Kozachkov , Scott W. Linderman

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms do not scale well for large datasets leading to difficulties in Neural Network posterior sampling. In this paper, we propose Penalty Bayesian Neural Networks - PBNNs, as a new algorithm that allows…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-24 Eiji Kawasaki , Markus Holzmann , Lawrence Adu-Gyamfi

Particle Metropolis-Hastings enables Bayesian parameter inference in general nonlinear state space models (SSMs). However, in many implementations a random walk proposal is used and this can result in poor mixing if not tuned correctly…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-11 Johan Dahlin , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Luca Martino , Victor Elvira

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful tool for computation with complex probability distributions. However the performance of such methods is critically dependant on properly tuned parameters, most of which are difficult if…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-27 James A. Brofos , Marylou Gabrié , Marcus A. Brubaker , Roy R. Lederman

Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is challenging when the likelihood function is irregular and expensive to compute. We explore several sampling algorithms that make use of subset evaluations to reduce computational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-16 Conor Rosato , Harvinder Lehal , Simon Maskell , Lee Devlin , Malcolm Strens

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a fundamental Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling and inference. With the advent of Big Data, distributed and parallel variants of MCMC methods are attracting increased attention. In this…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Weiming Feng , Thomas P. Hayes , Yitong Yin

Switching state-space models (SSSM) are a very popular class of time series models that have found many applications in statistics, econometrics and advanced signal processing. Bayesian inference for these models typically relies on Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2010-11-11 Nick Whiteley , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

Bayesian inference involves the specification of a statistical model by a statistician or practitioner, with careful thought about what each parameter represents. This results in particularly interpretable models which can be used to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-07 Jonathan Law , Darren Wilkinson

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-16 Yi-An Ma , Nicholas J. Foti , Emily B. Fox

Performing Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) can be exceedingly expensive when posterior evaluations invoke the evaluation of a computationally expensive model, such as a system of partial differential equations. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Patrick Conrad , Andrew Davis , Youssef Marzouk , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith

The Metropolis algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm used to simulate from parameter distributions of interest, such as generalized linear model parameters. The "Metropolis step" is a keystone concept that underlies…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-31 Alexander P Keil , Jessie K Edwards , Ashley I Naimi , Stephen R Cole

This paper considers Bayesian parameter estimation of dynamic systems using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. The Metroplis-Hastings (MH) algorithm is employed, and the main contribution of the paper is to examine and illustrate…

Applications · Statistics 2021-10-18 Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness , Johan Dahlin

In big data context, traditional MCMC methods, such as Metropolis-Hastings algorithms and hybrid Monte Carlo, scale poorly because of their need to evaluate the likelihood over the whole data set at each iteration. In order to resurrect…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-20 Changye Wu , Christian P. Robert

Developing efficient MCMC algorithms is indispensable in Bayesian inference. In parallel tempering, multiple interacting MCMC chains run to more efficiently explore the state space and improve performance. The multiple chains advance…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-15 A. Marie d'Avigneau , S. S. Singh , L. M. Murray

The ability to generate samples of the random effects from their conditional distributions is fundamental for inference in mixed effects models. Random walk Metropolis is widely used to perform such sampling, but this method is known to…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-29 Belhal Karimi , Marc Lavielle , Eric Moulines

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have received much attention in Bayesian computing for big data problems, but they are only applicable to a small class of problems for which the parameter space has a fixed…

Computation · Statistics 2020-02-10 Qifan Song , Yan Sun , Mao Ye , Faming Liang

In engineering examples, one often encounters the need to sample from unnormalized distributions with complex shapes that may also be implicitly defined through a physical or numerical simulation model, making it computationally expensive…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-27 Promit Chakroborty , Michael D. Shields