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Based on information theory, we present a method to determine an optimal Markov approximation for modelling and prediction from time series data. The method finds a balance between minimal modelling errors by taking as much as possible…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2013-05-29 Detlef Holstein , Holger Kantz

The Markov chain Monte Carlo method is a versatile tool in statistical physics to evaluate multi-dimensional integrals numerically. For the method to work effectively, we must consider the following key issues: the choice of ensemble, the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-07 Synge Todo , Hidemaro Suwa

Time-homogeneous Markov chains are often used as disease progression models in studies of cost-effectiveness and optimal decision-making. Maximum likelihood estimation of these models can be challenging when data are collected at a time…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Duncan Ermini Leaf

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-08 Jim Griffin , Krys Latuszynski , Mark Steel

The preparation of the stationary distribution of irreducible, time-reversible Markov chains is a fundamental building block in many heuristic approaches to algorithmically hard problems. It has been conjectured that quantum analogs of…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-02-20 Vedran Dunjko , Hans J. Briegel

We study the problem of clustering $T$ trajectories of length $H$, each generated by one of K unknown ergodic Markov chains over a finite state space of size $S$. We derive an instance-dependent, high-probability lower bound on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-18 Junghyun Lee , Yassir Jedra , Alexandre Proutière , Se-Young Yun

We study a spectral initialization method that serves a key role in recent work on estimating signals in nonconvex settings. Previous analysis of this method focuses on the phase retrieval problem and provides only performance bounds. In…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-07-23 Yue M. Lu , Gen Li

Existing studies on the degree correlation of evolving networks typically rely on differential equations and statistical analysis, resulting in only approximate solutions due to inherent randomness. To address this limitation, we propose an…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-13 Yue Xiao , Xiaojun Zhang

The spectral gap $\gamma$ of an ergodic and reversible Markov chain is an important parameter measuring the asymptotic rate of convergence. In applications, the transition matrix $P$ may be unknown, yet one sample of the chain up to a fixed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-19 David A. Levin , Yuval Peres

In this paper, we consider a new framework for particle filtering under model uncertainty that operates beyond the scope of Markovian switching systems. Specifically, we develop a novel particle filtering algorithm that applies to general…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-11 Yousef El-Laham , Liu Yang , Petar M. Djuric , Monica F. Bugallo

Spectral embedding uses eigenfunctions of the discrete Laplacian on a weighted graph to obtain coordinates for an embedding of an abstract data set into Euclidean space. We propose a new pre-processing step of first using the eigenfunctions…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-07-18 Alexander Cloninger , Stefan Steinerberger

Mapping molecular line emission beyond the bright low-J CO transitions is still challenging in extragalactic studies, even with the latest generation of (sub-)mm interferometers, such as ALMA and NOEMA. We summarise and test a spectral…

A generalization of the Wasserstein metric, the integrated transportation distance, establishes a novel distance between probability kernels of Markov systems. This metric serves as the foundation for an efficient approximation technique,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-07 Zhengqi Lin , Andrzej Ruszczynski

The problem of appropriately matching items subject to compatibility constraints arises in a number of important applications. While most of the literature on matching theory focuses on a static setting with a fixed number of items, several…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-04 Céline Comte

We introduce a novel spectral element method based on the ultraspherical spectral method and the hierarchical Poincar\'{e}-Steklov scheme for solving second-order linear partial differential equations on polygonal domains with unstructured…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-19 Daniel Fortunato , Nicholas Hale , Alex Townsend

Autonomous synthesis and characterization of inorganic materials requires the automatic and accurate analysis of X-ray diffraction spectra. For this task, we designed a probabilistic deep learning algorithm to identify complex multi-phase…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-05-27 Nathan J. Szymanski , Christopher J. Bartel , Yan Zeng , Qingsong Tu , Gerbrand Ceder

The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Na Lin , Yuanyuan Liu , Aaron Smith

Matrix completion is widely used in machine learning, engineering control, image processing, and recommendation systems. Currently, a popular algorithm for matrix completion is Singular Value Threshold (SVT). In this algorithm, the singular…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2019-12-05 Meng Qiao , Zheng Shan , Fudong Liu , Wenjie Sun

Let $P$ be the transition matrix of a finite, irreducible and reversible Markov chain. We say the continuous time Markov chain $X$ has transition matrix $P$ and speed $\lambda$ if it jumps at rate $\lambda$ according to the matrix $P$. Fix…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-26 Louigi Addario-Berry , Roberto I. Oliveira , Yuval Peres , Perla Sousi

In this paper we consider the first passage process of a spectrally negative Markov additive process (MAP). The law of this process is uniquely characterized by a certain matrix function, which plays a crucial role in fluctuation theory. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-06-16 Bernardo D'Auria , Jevgenijs Ivanovs , Offer Kella , Michel Mandjes