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Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Manuel Pulido , Juan J. Ruiz , Pierre Tandeo

In the classic measurement error framework, covariates are contaminated by independent additive noise. This paper considers parameter estimation in such a linear errors-in-variables model where the unknown measurement error distribution is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Linh H. Nghiem , Cornelis J. Potgieter

Selecting an appropriate divergence measure is a critical aspect of machine learning, as it directly impacts model performance. Among the most widely used, we find the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, originally introduced in kinetic…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-07-16 Gennaro Auricchio , Giovanni Brigati , Paolo Giudici , Giuseppe Toscani

The LMS algorithm is one of the most widely used techniques in adaptive filtering. Accurate modeling of the algorithm in various circumstances is paramount to achieving an efficient adaptive Wiener filter design process. In the recent…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-10-22 Enrique T. R. Pinto , Leonardo S. Resende

The design of unknown-input decoupled observers and filters requires the assumption of an existence condition in the literature. This paper addresses an unknown input filtering problem where the existence condition is not satisfied. Instead…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Peng Lu , Erik-Jan van Kampen , Cornelis C. de Visser , Qiping Chu

For real-life nonlinear systems, the exact form of nonlinearity is often not known and the known governing equations are often based on certain assumptions and approximations. Such representation introduced model-form error into the system.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-20 Shailesh Garg , Souvik Chakraborty , Budhaditya Hazra

We examine the estimation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and the use of the goodness-of-fit test for multivariate continuous distributions. Our starting point is the maximum entropy principle for Shannon entropy: among all…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Mehmet Siddik Cadirci , Martin Singull

In this paper we focus on the tracking performance of incremental adaptive LMS algorithm in an adaptive network. For this reason we consider the unknown weight vector to be a time varying sequence. First we analyze the performance of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-03-23 Ehsan Mostafapour , C. Ghobadi , Javad Nourinia , M. Chehel Amirani

Graph neural networks are often used to model interacting dynamical systems since they gracefully scale to systems with a varying and high number of agents. While there has been much progress made for deterministic interacting systems,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-04 Andreas Look , Melih Kandemir , Barbara Rakitsch , Jan Peters

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-12 Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Giulio Bottegal , Håkan Hjalmarsson

Uncertainty quantification is an important part of many performance critical applications. This paper provides a simple alternative to existing approaches such as ensemble learning and bayesian neural networks. By directly modeling the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Yi Hung Lim

We propose a novel numerical method for solving inverse problems subject to impulsive noises which possibly contain a large number of outliers. The approach is of Bayesian type, and it exploits a heavy-tailed t distribution for data noise…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-30 Bangti Jin

We propose a method to fuse posterior distributions learned from heterogeneous datasets. Our algorithm relies on a mean field assumption for both the fused model and the individual dataset posteriors and proceeds using a simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Sebastian Claici , Mikhail Yurochkin , Soumya Ghosh , Justin Solomon

We propose an efficient sensitivity analysis method for a wide class of colored noise-driven interacting particle systems (IPS). Our method is based on unperturbed simulations and significantly extends the Malliavin weight sampling method…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-06-18 Josselin Garnier , Harry L. F. Ip , Laurent Mertz

A common issue when analyzing real-world complex systems is that the interactions between the elements often change over time: this makes it difficult to find optimal models that describe this evolution and that can be estimated from data,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-08-04 Carlo Campajola , Domenico Di Gangi , Fabrizio Lillo , Daniele Tantari

Gaussian graphical models are used for determining conditional relationships between variables. This is accomplished by identifying off-diagonal elements in the inverse-covariance matrix that are non-zero. When the ratio of variables (p) to…

Applications · Statistics 2018-08-07 Donald R. Williams , Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari , Philippe Rast

In this paper we address the problem of performing Bayesian inference for the parameters of a nonlinear multi-output model and the covariance matrix of the different output signals. We propose an adaptive importance sampling (AIS) scheme…

Computation · Statistics 2025-01-03 E. Curbelo , L. Martino , F. Llorente , D. Delgado-Gomez

Optimal data detection in massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems often requires prohibitively high computational complexity. A variety of detection algorithms have been proposed in the literature, offering different…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-02 Yong Li , Sushanta K. Mallick , Tao Zeng , Junxing Zhang

This paper introduces and analyses interacting underdamped Langevin algorithms, termed Kinetic Interacting Particle Langevin Monte Carlo (KIPLMC) methods, for statistical inference in latent variable models. We propose a diffusion process…

Computation · Statistics 2026-04-17 Paul Felix Valsecchi Oliva , O. Deniz Akyildiz

The identification of unsubtracted foreground residuals in the cosmic microwave background maps on large scales is of crucial importance for the analysis of polarization signals. These residuals add a non-Gaussian contribution to the data.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-07-06 Assaf Ben-David , Hao Liu , Andrew D. Jackson
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