Related papers: Stochastic Modelling with Randomised Markov Bridge…
We study safe, data-driven control of (Markov) jump linear systems with unknown transition probabilities, where both the discrete mode and the continuous state are to be inferred from output measurements. To this end, we develop a receding…
In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of a stochastic approximation scheme on two timescales with set-valued drift functions and in the presence of non-additive iterate-dependent Markov noise. It is shown that the recursion on each…
A Markovian bridge is a probability measure taken from a disintegration of the law of an initial part of the path of a Markov process given its terminal value. As such, Markovian bridges admit a natural parameterization in terms of the…
A Hidden Markov Model for intraday momentum trading is presented which specifies a latent momentum state responsible for generating the observed securities' noisy returns. Existing momentum trading models suffer from time-lagging caused by…
Let X_1,...., X_n be a collection of iid discrete random variables, and Y_1,..., Y_m a set of noisy observations of such variables. Assume each observation Y_a to be a random function of some a random subset of the X_i's, and consider the…
The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through…
This paper presents a new prediction model for time series data by integrating a time-varying Geometric Brownian Motion model with a pricing mechanism used in financial engineering. Typical time series models such as Auto-Regressive…
For a network of discrete states with a periodically driven Markovian dynamics, we develop an inference scheme for an external observer who has access to some transitions. Based on waiting-time distributions between these transitions, the…
We study a stochastic optimization problem in which the sampling distribution depends on the decision variable, and the available samples are generated through an iterate-dependent Markov chain. Such settings arise naturally in problems…
In this paper, we consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with regime-switching and random horizon. Unlike previous works, the dynamic of assets are described by non-Markovian regime-switching models in the sense that…
Based on empirical market data, a stochastic volatility model is proposed with volatility driven by fractional noise. The model is used to obtain a risk-neutrality option pricing formula and an option pricing equation.
We study the problem of aggregation noisy labels. Usually, it is solved by proposing a stochastic model for the process of generating noisy labels and then estimating the model parameters using the observed noisy labels. A traditional…
Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical…
The literature on Bayesian methods for the analysis of discrete-time semi-Markov processes is sparse. In this paper, we introduce the semi-Markov beta-Stacy process, a stochastic process useful for the Bayesian non-parametric analysis of…
We consider a hidden Markov model with multiplicative noise emerging from studies of software reliability. We show the stability of the optimal filter with respect to general initial conditions in the total variation- and $L^p$-norm and…
In this paper we develop a perturbation method to predict the rate of occurrence of rare events for singularly perturbed stochastic systems using a probability density function approach. In contrast to a stochastic normal form approach, we…
We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed multivariate diffusion processes. Observations are assumed to be discrete in time, noisy and incomplete. We assume the drift and diffusion coefficient depend on…
We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…
Currently, legal requirements demand that insurance companies increase their emphasis on monitoring the risks linked to the underwriting and asset management activities. Regarding underwriting risks, the main uncertainties that insurers…
This paper addresses the challenge of a particular class of noisy state observations in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), a common issue in various real-world applications. We focus on modeling this uncertainty through a confusion matrix…