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The identification of surrogate markers is motivated by their potential to make decisions sooner about a treatment effect. However, few methods have been developed to actually use a surrogate marker to test for a treatment effect in a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-17 Layla Parast , Jay Bartroff

Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-13 Shu Li , Peter Bühlmann

A new meta-algorithm for estimating the conditional average treatment effects is proposed in the paper. The main idea underlying the algorithm is to consider a new dataset consisting of feature vectors produced by means of concatenation of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-10 Lev V. Utkin , Mikhail V. Kots , Viacheslav S. Chukanov

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

Bipartite experiments arise in various fields, in which the treatments are randomized over one set of units, while the outcomes are measured over another separate set of units. However, existing methods often rely on strong model…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-16 Sizhu Lu , Lei Shi , Yue Fang , Wenxin Zhang , Peng Ding

For settings with a binary treatment and a binary outcome, instrumental variables can be used to construct bounds on a causal treatment effect. With continuous outcomes, meaningful bounds are more difficult to obtain because the domain of…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-26 Tao Liu , Joseph W. Hogan

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

When assessing the causal effect of a binary exposure using observational data, confounder imbalance across exposure arms must be addressed. Matching methods, including propensity score-based matching, can be used to deconfound the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-01 Ernesto Ulloa-Pérez , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

Randomized trials typically estimate average relative treatment effects, but decisions on the benefit of a treatment are possibly better informed by more individualized predictions of the absolute treatment effect. In case of a binary…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-20 J Hoogland , J IntHout , M Belias , MM Rovers , RD Riley , FE Harrell , KGM Moons , TPA Debray , JB Reitsma

We consider time to treatment initiation. This can commonly occur in preventive medicine, such as disease screening and vaccination; it can also occur with non-fatal health conditions such as HIV infection without the onset of AIDS. While…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zhichen Zhao , Andrew Ying , Ronghui Xu

Cause-effect relationships are typically evaluated by comparing outcome responses to binary treatment values, representing two arms of a hypothetical randomized controlled trial. However, in certain applications, treatments of interest are…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-15 Razieh Nabi , Todd McNutt , Ilya Shpitser

This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control…

Econometrics · Economics 2017-09-27 Johan Vikström , Geert Ridder , Martin Weidner

Defining and identifying causal intervention effects for transmissible infectious disease outcomes is challenging because a treatment -- such as a vaccine -- given to one individual may affect the infection outcomes of others.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-11 Xiaoxuan Cai , Wen Wei Loh , Forrest W. Crawford

Path-specific effects are a broad class of mediated effects from an exposure to an outcome via one or more causal pathways with respect to some subset of intermediate variables. The majority of the literature concerning estimation of…

In most real-world systems units are interconnected and can be represented as networks consisting of nodes and edges. For instance, in social systems individuals can have social ties, family or financial relationships. In settings where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-31 Laura Forastiere , Fabrizia Mealli , Albert Wu , Edoardo Airoldi

Survey questions often ask respondents to select from ordered scales where the meanings of the categories are subjective, leaving each individual free to apply their own definitions in answering. This paper studies the use of these…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-29 Leonard Goff

The pharmaceutical industry is plagued by the problem of side effects that can occur anytime a prescribed medication is ingested. There has been a recent interest in using the vast quantities of medical data available in longitudinal…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2014-09-22 Jenna Reps , Jonathan M. Garibaldi , Uwe Aickelin , Daniele Soria , Jack E. Gibson , Richard B. Hubbard

In both observational studies and randomized trials, post-treatment events such as dropout, nonadherence, and truncation by death occur frequently. In some studies, conditioning on post-treatment variables is a deliberate strategy to…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-24 Marco Piccininni , Mats J. Stensrud

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee