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In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

Computation · Statistics 2013-04-01 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Elena Ehrlich

We investigate the class of $\sigma$-stable Poisson-Kingman random probability measures (RPMs) in the context of Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling. This is a large class of discrete RPMs which encompasses most of the the popular…

Computation · Statistics 2018-02-22 María Lomelí , Stefano Favaro , Yee Whye Teh

We consider Bayesian inference problems with computationally intensive likelihood functions. We propose a Gaussian process (GP) based method to approximate the joint distribution of the unknown parameters and the data. In particular, we…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-15 Hongqiao Wang , Jinglai Li

We propose an adaptive importance sampling scheme for Gaussian approximations of intractable posteriors. Optimization-based approximations like variational inference can be too inaccurate while existing Monte Carlo methods can be too slow.…

Computation · Statistics 2025-02-04 Willem van den Boom , Andrea Cremaschi , Alexandre H. Thiery

In this paper, we showed that the no-arbitrage condition holds if the market follows the mixture of the geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The mixture of GBM can incorporate heavy-tail behavior of the market. It automatically leads us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-02 Sourish Das , Aritra Halder , Ananya Lahiri , Dipak K Dey

It is shown that a simple Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals offers Bayesian density estimation with adaptive posterior convergence rates. Toward this, a novel sieve for non-parametric mixture densities is explored, and its…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-18 Surya T. Tokdar

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) have attracted significant attention in machine learning for their ability to model subsets drawn from a large item collection. Recent work shows that nonsymmetric DPP (NDPP) kernels have significant…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-14 Mike Gartrell , Insu Han , Elvis Dohmatob , Jennifer Gillenwater , Victor-Emmanuel Brunel

In this paper, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian approach for Lindsey and penalized Gaussian mixtures methods. We compare these methods with the Dirichlet process mixture model. Our approach is a Bayesian nonparametric method not based…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-30 Adel Bedoui , Ori Rosen

Typical IRT rating-scale models assume that the rating category threshold parameters are the same over examinees. However, it can be argued that many rating data sets violate this assumption. To address this practical psychometric problem,…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-22 Ken Akira Fujimoto , George Karabatsos

In modular Bayesian analyses, complex models are composed of distinct modules, each representing different aspects of the data or prior information. In this context, fully Bayesian approaches can sometimes lead to undesirable feedback…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-28 Grant Hutchings , Kellin Rumsey , Derek Bingham , Gabriel Huerta

Recent work introduced deep kernel processes as an entirely kernel-based alternative to NNs (Aitchison et al. 2020). Deep kernel processes flexibly learn good top-layer representations by alternately sampling the kernel from a distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-06 Sebastian W. Ober , Laurence Aitchison

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have become powerful tools for Bayesian inference. However, they do not scale well to large-data problems. Divide-and-conquer strategies, which split the data into batches and, for each batch, run…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-18 Christopher Nemeth , Chris Sherlock

Creating low dimensional representations of a high dimensional data set is an important component in many machine learning applications. How to cluster data using their low dimensional embedded space is still a challenging problem in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-27 Zahra Moslehi , Abdolreza Mirzaei , Mehran Safayani

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-21 Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Chris Holmes , Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-01 Jingning Yao , Ajay Jasra , Sheng Jiang

We propose Diffusion Model Variational Inference (DMVI), a novel method for automated approximate inference in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). DMVI utilizes diffusion models as variational approximations to the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are nonparametric probabilistic models…

In recent years, we have seen a handful of work on inference algorithms over non-stationary data streams. Given their flexibility, Bayesian non-parametric models are a good candidate for these scenarios. However, reliable streaming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-14 Ioar Casado , Aritz Pérez

We introduce a Bayesian approach to predictive density calibration and combination that accounts for parameter uncertainty and model set incompleteness through the use of random calibration functionals and random combination weights.…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-26 Federico Bassetti , Roberto Casarin , Francesco Ravazzolo

Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) commonly arise in communication systems, particularly in bilinear joint estimation and detection problems. Although the product of GMMs is still a GMM, as the number of factors increases, the number of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-04 Zilu Zhao , Dirk Slock