Related papers: Bayesian two-step estimation in differential equat…
This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs), via their induced flow maps, provide a powerful framework to parameterize invertible transformations for the purpose of representing complex probability distributions. While such models have achieved…
Parameter inference of dynamical systems is a challenging task faced by many researchers and practitioners across various fields. In many applications, it is common that only limited variables are observable. In this paper, we propose a…
Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is…
In this study, we introduce a refined method for ascertaining error estimations in numerical simulations of dynamical systems via an innovative application of composition techniques. Our approach involves a dual application of a basic…
The prominent Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) result claims that the posterior distribution after centering by the efficient estimator and standardizing by the square root of the total Fisher information is nearly standard normal. In…
This paper studies the role played by identification in the Bayesian analysis of statistical and econometric models. First, for unidentified models we demonstrate that there are situations where the introduction of a non-degenerate prior…
The validity of two-step or plug-in inference methods is questioned in the Bayesian framework. We study semi-parametric models where the plug-in of a non-parametrically modelled nuisance component is used. We show that when the nuisance and…
This paper proposes a new Bayesian strategy for the smooth estimation of altimetric parameters. The altimetric signal is assumed to be corrupted by a thermal and speckle noise distributed according to an independent and non identically…
We study frequentist asymptotic properties of Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional Gaussian sparse regression when unknown nuisance parameters are involved. Nuisance parameters can be finite-, high-, or infinite-dimensional. A mixture…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are commonly used to model dynamic behavior of a system. Because many parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from the observed data, there is growing interest in statistics to develop…
We study the problem of parameter estimation for a univariate discretely observed ergodic diffusion process given as a solution to a stochastic differential equation. The estimation procedure we propose consists of two steps. In the first…
We explore probability modelling of discretization uncertainty for system states defined implicitly by ordinary or partial differential equations. Accounting for this uncertainty can avoid posterior under-coverage when likelihoods are…
Based on a novel dynamic Whittle likelihood approximation for locally stationary processes, a Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the time-varying spectral density is proposed. This dynamic frequency-domain based likelihood…
We study nonparametric Bayesian statistical inference for the parameters governing a pure jump process of the form $$Y_t = \sum_{k=1}^{N(t)} Z_k,~~~ t \ge 0,$$ where $N(t)$ is a standard Poisson process of intensity $\lambda$, and $Z_k$ are…
Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in modern, real-world applications. Yet, estimating the unknown parameters of stochastic, nonlinear dynamical models remains a challenging problem. The majority of existing methods…
Inverse problems, i.e., estimating parameters of physical models from experimental data, are ubiquitous in science and engineering. The Bayesian formulation is the gold standard because it alleviates ill-posedness issues and quantifies…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are foundational in modeling intricate dynamics across a gamut of scientific disciplines. Yet, a possibility to represent a single phenomenon through multiple ODE models, driven by different…
Estimation of the population size $n$ from $k$ i.i.d.\ binomial observations with unknown success probability $p$ is relevant to a multitude of applications and has a long history. Without additional prior information this is a notoriously…
Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to characterize the dynamics of complex systems in real applications. In this article, we propose a novel joint estimation approach for generalized sparse additive ODEs where…