Related papers: On Some Distributed Disorder Detection
Among the main goals in multiple change point problems are the estimation of the number and positions of the change points, as well as the regime structure in the clusters induced by those changes. The product partition model (PPM) is a…
Hawkes processes are a class of self-exciting point processes that are used to model complex phenomena. While most applications of Hawkes processes assume that event data occurs in continuous-time, the less-studied discrete-time version of…
Dropout represents a typical issue to be addressed when dealing with longitudinal studies. If the mechanism leading to missing information is non-ignorable, inference based on the observed data only may be severely biased. A frequent…
The inference of Markov models from data on stochastic dynamical trajectories over the large time-window $T$ is revisited via the Large Deviations at Level 2.5 for the time-empirical density and the time-empirical flows. The goal is to…
In decision modelling with time to event data, parametric models are often used to extrapolate the survivor function. One such model is the piecewise exponential model whereby the hazard function is partitioned into segments, with the…
In this paper, we seek to understand the behavior of dynamical systems that are perturbed by a parameter that changes discretely in time. If we impose certain conditions, we can study certain embedded systems within a hybrid system as…
Consider observations $y_1,\dots,y_n$ on nodes of a connected graph, where the $y_i$ independently come from $N(\theta_i, \sigma^2)$ distributions and an unknown partition divides the $n$ observations into blocks. One well-studied class of…
This paper studies multivariate nonparametric change point localization and inference problems. The data consists of a multivariate time series with potentially short range dependence. The distribution of this data is assumed to be…
Heterogeneity is a dominant factor in the behaviour of many biological processes. Despite this, it is common for mathematical and statistical analyses to ignore biological heterogeneity as a source of variability in experimental data.…
Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) are studied in a general framework. First, different constructions are proven to be equivalent. Second, we introduce a coupling between two PDMPs following the same differential flow which…
Mediation analysis is an important analytic tool commonly used in a broad range of scientific applications. In this article, we study the problem of mediation analysis when there are multivariate and conditionally dependent mediators, and…
The use of observational time series data to assess the impact of multi-time point interventions is becoming increasingly common as more health and activity data are collected and digitized via wearables, social media, and electronic health…
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference for changepoints where the number and position of the changepoints are both unknown. In particular, we consider product partition models where it is possible to integrate out model parameters…
It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…
Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing…
This article expands the framework of Bayesian inference and provides direct probabilistic methods for approaching inference tasks that are typically handled with information theory. We treat Bayesian probability updating as a random…
Traditional methods for covariate adjustment of treatment means in designed experiments are inherently conditional on the observed covariate values. In order to develop a coherent general methodology for analysis of covariance, we propose a…
The aim of change-point detection is to identify behavioral shifts within time series data. This article focuses on scenarios where the data is derived from an inhomogeneous Poisson process or a marked Poisson process. We present a…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
The robust detection of statistical dependencies between the components of a complex system is a key step in gaining a network-based understanding of the system. Because of their simplicity and low computation cost, pairwise statistics are…