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PyVBMC is a Python implementation of the Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) algorithm for posterior and model inference for black-box computational models (Acerbi, 2018, 2020). VBMC is an approximate inference method designed for…

Time series analysis of fMRI data is an important area of medical statistics for neuroimaging data. The neuroimaging community has embraced mean-field variational Bayes (VB) approximations, which are implemented in Statistical Parametric…

Variational inference (VI) is a technique to approximate difficult to compute posteriors by optimization. In contrast to MCMC, VI scales to many observations. In the case of complex posteriors, however, state-of-the-art VI approaches often…

We develop a variational Bayesian (VB) approach for estimating large-scale dynamic network models in the network autoregression framework. The VB approach allows for the automatic identification of the dynamic structure of such a model and…

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing…

Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) are expressive latent variable models that can be used to learn complex probability distributions from training data. However, the quality of the resulting model crucially relies on the expressiveness of the…

We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When…

In high-dimensions, the prior tails can have a significant effect on both posterior computation and asymptotic concentration rates. To achieve optimal rates while keeping the posterior computations relatively simple, an empirical Bayes…

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation…

Mean-field backward stochastic Volterra integral equations (MF-BSVIEs, for short) are introduced and studied. Well-posedness of MF-BSVIEs in the sense of introduced adapted M-solutions is established. Two duality principles between linear…

The use of sparse precision (inverse covariance) matrices has become popular because they allow for efficient algorithms for joint inference in high-dimensional models. Many applications require the computation of certain elements of the…

We have utilized the non-conjugate Variational Bayesian (VB) method for the problem of the sparse Poisson regression model. To provide approximate conjugacy in the model, the likelihood is approximated by a quadratic function, yielding…

Variational Bayes (VB) inference is one of the most important algorithms in machine learning and widely used in engineering and industry. However, VB is known to suffer from the problem of local optima. In this Letter, we generalize VB by…

Mixture models are widely used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning, in particular in computational biology, natural language processing and many other fields. Variational inference, a technique for approximating intractable…

Distributed inference/estimation in Bayesian framework in the context of sensor networks has recently received much attention due to its broad applicability. The variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm is a technique for approximating…

The mean field variational Bayes (VB) algorithm implemented in Stan is relatively fast and efficient, making it feasible to produce model-estimated official statistics on a rapid timeline. Yet, while consistent point estimates of parameters…

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

Deep neural networks have achieved impressive results on a wide variety of tasks. However, quantifying uncertainty in the network's output is a challenging task. Bayesian models offer a mathematical framework to reason about model…

The effects of different parametrizations on the convergence of Bayesian computational algorithms for hierarchical models are well explored. Techniques such as centering, noncentering and partial noncentering can be used to accelerate…

This paper proposes a fast two-stage variational Bayesian (VB) algorithm to estimate unrestricted panel spatial autoregressive models. Using Dirichlet-Laplace priors, we are able to uncover the spatial relationships between cross-sectional…