Related papers: qGaussian model of default
While defaults are rare events, losses can be substantial even for credit portfolios with a large number of contracts. Therefore, not only a good evaluation of the probability of default is crucial, but also the severity of losses needs to…
We analyze the fluctuation of the loss from default around its large portfolio limit in a class of reduced-form models of correlated firm-by-firm default timing. We prove a weak convergence result for the fluctuation process and use it for…
In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, much attention has been paid to investigating the appropriateness of the current practice of default risk modeling in banking, finance and insurance industries. A recent empirical study by…
We discuss the parameter estimation of the probability of default (PD), the correlation between the obligors, and a phase transition. In our previous work, we studied the problem using the beta-binomial distribution. A non-equilibrium phase…
This paper is a contribution to the Proceedings of the Workshop Complexity, Metastability and Nonextensivity held in Erice 20-26 July 2004, to be published by World Scientific. We propose a generalization to Merton's model for evaluating…
Predicting corporate default risk has long been a crucial topic in the finance field, as bankruptcies impose enormous costs on market participants as well as the economy as a whole. This paper aims to forecast frailty correlated default…
It is a well known fact that recovery rates tend to go down when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. We demonstrate how the loss given default model with the default and recovery dependent via the latent systematic risk…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…
The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modeling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modeled independently, in many cases they are even assumed constant. This is despite…
This article extends the autoregressive count time series model class by allowing for a model with regimes, that is, some of the parameters in the model depend on the state of an unobserved Markov chain. We develop a quasi-maximum…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…
Changes in collateralization have been implicated in significant default (or near-default) events during the financial crisis, most notably with AIG. We have developed a framework for quantifying this effect based on moving between…
Filiz et al. (2008) proposed a model for the pattern of defaults seen among a group of firms at the end of a given time period. The ingredients in the model are a graph, where the vertices correspond to the firms and the edges describe the…
The behavior of stock market returns over a period of 1-60 days has been investigated for S&P 500 and Nasdaq within the framework of nonextensive Tsallis statistics. Even for such long terms, the distributions of the returns are…
Value-at-risk is one of the important subjects that extensively used by researchers and practitioners for measuring and managing uncertainty in financial markets. Although value-at-risk is a common risk control instrument, but there are…
According to theoretical models of valuing risky corporate securities, risk of default is primary component in overall yield spread. However, sizable empirical literature considers it otherwise by giving more importance to non-default risk…
In this paper, we deal with an axiomatic approach to default risk. We introduce the notion of a default risk measure, which generalizes the classical probability of default (PD), and allows to incorporate model risk in various forms. We…
Financial markets are highly non-linear and non-equilibrium systems. Earlier works have suggested that the behavior of market returns can be well described within the framework of non-extensive Tsallis statistics or superstatistics. For…
We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based…
Reliable calculations of financial risk require that the fat-tailed nature of prices changes is included in risk measures. To this end, a non-Gaussian approach to financial risk management is presented, modeling the power-law tails of the…