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We present the Gaussian process density sampler (GPDS), an exchangeable generative model for use in nonparametric Bayesian density estimation. Samples drawn from the GPDS are consistent with exact, independent samples from a distribution…

Computation · Statistics 2009-12-25 Ryan Prescott Adams , Iain Murray , David J. C. MacKay

Approximate Bayesian inference methods that scale to very large datasets are crucial in leveraging probabilistic models for real-world time series. Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes combine the use of inducing variables with efficient…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-10 William J. Wilkinson , Arno Solin , Vincent Adam

In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-08-22 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen Roberts

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-11-25 Leo L. Duan , Xia Wang , Rhonda D. Szczesniak

Gaussian processes allow for flexible specification of prior assumptions of unknown dynamics in state space models. We present a procedure for efficient Bayesian learning in Gaussian process state space models, where the representation is…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-18 Andreas Svensson , Arno Solin , Simo Särkkä , Thomas B. Schön

State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference \emph{and learning} (i.e. state estimation and system…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-12-18 Roger Frigola , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön , Carl E. Rasmussen

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-08 Bingjing Tang , Vinayak Rao

Bayesian learning using Gaussian processes provides a foundational framework for making decisions in a manner that balances what is known with what could be learned by gathering data. In this dissertation, we develop techniques for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-29 Alexander Terenin

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

In spite of the diverse literature on nonstationary spatial modeling and approximate Gaussian process (GP) methods, there are no general approaches for conducting fully Bayesian inference for moderately sized nonstationary spatial data sets…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-01 Mark D. Risser , Daniel Turek

Gaussian processes are valuable tools for non-parametric modelling, where typically an assumption of stationarity is employed. While removing this assumption can improve prediction, fitting such models is challenging. In this work,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-02 Karla Monterrubio-Gómez , Lassi Roininen , Sara Wade , Theo Damoulas , Mark Girolami

This paper presents a Bayesian generative model for dependent Cox point processes, alongside an efficient inference scheme which scales as if the point processes were modelled independently. We can handle missing data naturally, infer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-07-28 Tom Gunter , Chris Lloyd , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

The main challenges that arise when adopting Gaussian Process priors in probabilistic modeling are how to carry out exact Bayesian inference and how to account for uncertainty on model parameters when making model-based predictions on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-04-08 Maurizio Filippone , Mark Girolami

Gaussian process modulated Poisson processes provide a flexible framework for modelling spatiotemporal point patterns. So far this had been restricted to one dimension, binning to a pre-determined grid, or small data sets of up to a few…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-04 S. T. John , James Hensman

We present the first fully variational Bayesian inference scheme for continuous Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes. Such point processes are used in a variety of domains, including neuroscience, geo-statistics and astronomy, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-29 Chris Lloyd , Tom Gunter , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-06-17 Terrance Savitsky , Marina Vannucci , Naijun Sha

Many problems arising in applications result in the need to probe a probability distribution for functions. Examples include Bayesian nonparametric statistics and conditioned diffusion processes. Standard MCMC algorithms typically become…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-20 S. L. Cotter , G. O. Roberts , A. M. Stuart , D. White

A new algorithm is developed to tackle the issue of sampling non-Gaussian model parameter posterior probability distributions that arise from solutions to Bayesian inverse problems. The algorithm aims to mitigate some of the hurdles faced…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-19 Leen Alawieh , Jonathan Goodman , John B. Bell

Point pattern data often exhibit features such as abrupt changes, hotspots and spatially varying dependence in local intensity. Under a Poisson process framework, these correspond to discontinuities and nonstationarity in the underlying…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Izabel Nolau , Flávio B. Gonçalves , Dani Gamerman

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan
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