Related papers: Evolution of induced earthquakes from dimensionles…
The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquakes event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been…
The increasing rate in earth quakes in the Netherlands is attributed to the enhanced depletion of Groningen natural gas, currently at a rate of 50 billion m3 per year. We performed a model-independent analysis of the earth quake event…
We report moment distribution results from a laboratory earthquake fault experiment consisting of sheared elastic plates separated by a narrow gap filled with a two dimensional granular medium. Local measurement of strain displacements of…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…
We study earthquake interval time statistics, paying special attention to inter-occurrence times in the two-dimensional (2D) stick-slip (block-slider) model. Inter-occurrence times are the time interval between successive earthquakes on all…
We study statistical distributions in a mechanical model for an earthquake fault introduced by Burridge and Knopoff [R. Burridge and L. Knopoff, {\sl Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am.} {\bf 57}, 341 (1967)]. Our investigations on the size (moment),…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…
We study the asymptotic distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is asymptotically…
We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…
We address several questions on the behavior of a numerical model recently introduced to study seismic phenomena, that includes relaxation in the plates as a key ingredient. We make an analysis of the scaling of the largest events with…
The district of southern California and Japan are divided into small cubic cells, each of which is regarded as a vertex of a graph if earthquakes occur therein. Two successive earthquakes define an edge and a loop, which replace the complex…
Coulomb-stress theory has been used for years in seismology to understand how earthquakes trigger each other. Whenever an earthquake occurs, the stress field changes, and places with positive increases are brought closer to failure.…
We study the seismicity (global seismic activity) that occurred in Greece between 1976 and 2009 based on the dataset reported in Makropoulos et al., 2012, using concepts of Non-extensive Statistical Physics. By considering the entire and…
Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous small events. The exponent of a power law distribution can…
We study a 2D quasi-static discrete {\it crack} anti-plane model of a tectonic plate with long range elastic forces and quenched disorder. The plate is driven at its border and the load is transfered to all elements through elastic forces.…
We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…