Related papers: The non-linear trade-off between return and risk: …
We develop a framework for interacting with uncertain environments in reinforcement learning (RL) by leveraging preferences in the form of utility functions. We claim that there is value in considering different risk measures during…
Designing dynamic portfolio insurance strategies under market conditions switching between two or more regimes is a challenging task in financial economics. Recently, a promising approach employing the value-at-risk (VaR) measure to assign…
Most people are risk-averse (risk-seeking) when they expect to gain (lose). Based on a generalization of ``expected utility theory'' which takes this into account, we introduce an automaton mimicking the dynamics of economic operations.…
Multifractal processes are a relatively new tool of stock market analysis. Their power lies in the ability to take multiple orders of autocorrelations into account explicitly. In the first part of the paper we discuss the framework of the…
A decision-maker periodically acquires information about a changing state, controlling both the timing and content of updates. I characterize optimal policies using a decomposition of the dynamic problem into optimal stopping and static…
People often deviate from expected utility theory when making risky and intertemporal choices. While the effects of probabilistic risk and time delay have been extensively studied in isolation, their interplay and underlying theoretical…
In a financial exchange, market impact is a measure of the price change of an asset following a transaction. This is an important element of market microstructure, which determines the behaviour of the market following a trade. In this…
Stable and efficient food markets are crucial for global food security, yet international staple food markets are increasingly exposed to complex risks, including intensified risk contagion and escalating external uncertainties. This paper…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatilities associated with financial time series exhibit short-range correlations. This entails that the volatility process is very rough and its autocorrelation exhibits sharp decay at the…
This paper develops a continuous-time filtering framework for estimating a hazard rate subject to an unobservable change-point. This framework naturally arises in both financial and insurance applications, where the default intensity of a…
To find a trade-off between profitability and prudence, financial practitioners need to choose appropriate risk measures. Two key points are: Firstly, investors' risk attitudes under uncertainty conditions should be an important reference…
The creativity and emergence of biological and psychological behavior are nonlinear. However, that does not necessarily mean only that the measurements of the behaviors are curvilinear. Furthermore, the linear model might fail to reduce…
This paper investigates the role of high-dimensional information sets in the context of Markov switching models with time varying transition probabilities. Markov switching models are commonly employed in empirical macroeconomic research…
The dynamics of a stock market with heterogeneous agents is discussed in the framework of a recently proposed spin model for the emergence of bubbles and crashes. We relate the log returns of stock prices to magnetization in the model and…
An empirical analysis, suggested by optimal Merton dynamics, reveals some unexpected features of asset volumes. These features are connected to traders' belief and risk aversion. This paper proposes a trading strategy model in the optimal…
We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two…
In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…
In the context of understanding the nature of the risk transformation process of the financial system we propose an iterative risk-trading game between several agents who build their trading strategies based on a general utility setting.…
The value of an asset in a financial market is given in terms of another asset known as numeraire. The dynamics of the value is non-stationary and hence, to quantify the relationships between different assets, one requires convenient…
We explore a decomposition in which returns on a large class of portfolios relative to the market depend on a smooth non-negative drift and changes in the asset price distribution. This decomposition is obtained using general continuous…